Browsing by Author "Janes, Victoria J."

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    Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis
    (Elsevier, 2016-12-09) Holman, Ian P.; Brown, C.; Janes, Victoria J.; Sandars, Daniel L.
    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
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    Hydrological and sedimentation implications of landscape changes in a Himalayan catchment due to bioenergy cropping
    (European Geosciences Union, 2015-04) Remesan, Renji; Holman, Ian P.; Janes, Victoria J.
    There is a global effort to focus on the development of bioenergy and energy cropping, due to the generally increasing demand for crude oil, high oil price volatility and climate change mitigation challenges. Second generation energy cropping is expected to increase greatly in India as the Government of India has recently approved a national policy of 20 % biofuel blending by 2017; furthermore, the country’s biomass based power generation potential is estimated as around ∼24GW and large investments are expected in coming years to increase installed capacity. In this study, we have modelled the environmental influences (e.g.: hydrology and sediment) of scenarios of increased biodiesel cropping (Jatropha curcas) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a northern Indian river basin. SWAT has been applied to the River Beas basin, using daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) meteorological data to simulate the river regime and crop yields. We have applied Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2 (SUFI-2) to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream [U+FB02]ow modelling. The model evaluation statistics for daily river flows at the Jwalamukhi and Pong gauges show good agreement with measured flows (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.70 and PBIAS of 7.54 %). The study has applied two land use change scenarios of (1) increased bioenergy cropping in marginal (grazing) lands in the lower and middle regions of catchment (2) increased bioenergy cropping in low yielding areas of row crops in the lower and middle regions of the catchment. The presentation will describe the improved understanding of the hydrological, erosion and sediment delivery and food production impacts arising from the introduction of a new cropping variety to a marginal area; and illustrate the potential prospects of bioenergy production in Himalayan valleys.
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    The impacts of natural flood management approaches on in-channel sediment quality
    (Wiley, 2016-10-11) Janes, Victoria J.; Grabowski, Robert C.; Mant, J.; Allen, D.; Morse, J. L.; Haynes, H.
    Natural Flood Management (NFM) techniques aim to reduce downstream flooding by storing and slowing the flow of stormwater to river channels. These techniques include a range of measures, including setback stormwater outfalls and the physical restoration of channels and floodplains, to improve the natural functioning of catchments. An additional benefit of NFM measures is the potential reduction in sediment and pollutant delivery to the channel. Urban development releases a variety of heavy metal and nutrient pollutants that enter rivers through stormwater outfalls with adverse effects on the aquatic ecosystem. In this study, the influence of channel modification and quality of the river habitat on the sediment quality surrounding stormwater outfalls was assessed. Sediment samples were taken at several outfalls within the Johnson Creek catchment, Oregon, USA, and analysed for a variety of urban pollutants. The level of river habitat quality and modification at each site were assessed using a semi-quantitative scoring methodology. Significant increases in pollutant levels were observed at outfalls, with a greater and more variable increase at direct compared to setback outfalls. Removal efficiency of certain pollutants was found to be significantly correlated to the level of habitat quality or modification (for Fe, Ba, Sn, Mg, P, K) indicating that more natural reaches had greater potential for pollutant removal. The findings highlight the multiple benefits associated with NFM and river restoration approaches in relation to sediment quality and pollutant content.