Browsing by Author "Leip, Adrian"

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    A protocol to develop shared socio-economic pathways for European agriculture
    (Elsevier, 2019-10-16) Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Kok, Kasper; Priess, Jörg A.; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Holman, Ian P.; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, Adrian; Le Mouël, Chantal; Mathijs, Erik; Mehdi, Bano; Michetti, Melania; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øygarden, Lillian; Schönhart, Martin; Reidsma, Pytrik; Schaldach, Rüdiger
    Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.
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    Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: the Eur-Agri-SSPs
    (Elsevier, 2020-09-19) Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Holman, Ian P.; Kok, Kasper; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, Adrian; Le Mouël, Chantal; Mathijs, Erik; Mehdi, Bano; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øistad, Knut; Øygarden, Lillian; Priess, Jörg A.; Schönhart, Martin
    Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes
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    The value of manure - Manure as co-product in life cycle assessment
    (Elsevier, 2019-04-19) Leip, Adrian; Ledgard, Stewart; Uwizeye, Aimable; Palhares, Julio C.P.; Fernanda Aller, M.; Amon, Barbara; Binder, Michael; Cordovil, Claudia M.d.S.; De Camillis, Camillo; Dong, Hongming; Fusi, Alessandra; Helin, Janne; Hörtenhuber, Stefan; Hristov, Alexander N.; Koelsch, Richard; Liu, Chunjiang; Masso, Cargele; Nkongolo, Nsalambi V.; Wang, Ying
    Livestock production is important for food security, nutrition, and landscape maintenance, but it is associated with several environmental impacts. To assess the risk and benefits arising from livestock production, transparent and robust indicators are required, such as those offered by life cycle assessment. A central question in such approaches is how environmental burden is allocated to livestock products and to manure that is re-used for agricultural production. To incentivize sustainable use of manure, it should be considered as a co-product as long as it is not disposed of, or wasted, or applied in excess of crop nutrient needs, in which case it should be treated as a waste. This paper proposes a theoretical approach to define nutrient requirements based on nutrient response curves to economic and physical optima and a pragmatic approach based on crop nutrient yield adjusted for nutrient losses to atmosphere and water. Allocation of environmental burden to manure and other livestock products is then based on the nutrient value from manure for crop production using the price of fertilizer nutrients. We illustrate and discuss the proposed method with two case studies.