Browsing by Author "Scully, Brian"

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    Defining and characterizing Aflatoxin contamination risk areas for corn in Georgia, USA: Adjusting for collinearity and spatial correlation
    (Elsevier, 2018-07-02) Yoo, EunHye; Kerry, Ruth; Ingram, Benjamin R.; Ortiz, Brenda; Scully, Brian
    Aflatoxin is a carcinogenic toxin to humans and animals produced by mold fungi in staple crops. Surveys of Aflatoxin are expensive, and the results are usually not available for implementing within season mitigation strategies. Identification of high and low risk areas and years is essential to reduce the number of samples analyzed for Aflatoxin concentration. Previously a risk factors approach was developed to determine county level Aflatoxin contamination risk in southern Georgia, but Aflatoxin concentrations and risk factor data were not analyzed simultaneously and all risk factors had equal weight which is unrealistic. In the current paper we propose a regression approach to overcome these problems. Spatial Poisson profile regression identified clusters of counties which have similar Aflatoxin risk and risk factor profiles, whilst explicitly taking into account multicollinearity in the risk factor data and spatial autocorrelation in the Aflatoxin data. This approach allows examination of the utility of different highly correlated variables including remotely sensed data that could give information at the sub-county level. The results identify plausible clusters compared to previous work but also give the relative importance of the risk factors associated with those clusters. The approach also helps show that some factors like well-drained soil behave differently from expectations and irrigation data is not useful.
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    Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
    (Nature Publishing Group, 2021-06-29) Kerry, Ruth; Ingram, Benjamin R.; Garcia Cela, Esther; Magan, Naresh; Ortiz, Brenda V.; Scully, Brian
    Aflatoxins (AFs) are produced by fungi in crops and can cause liver cancer. Permitted levels are legislated and batches of grain are rejected based on average concentrations. Corn grown in Southern Georgia (GA), USA, which experiences drought during the mid-silk growth period in June, is particularly susceptible to infection by Aspergillus section Flavi species which produce AFs. Previous studies showed strong association between AFs and June weather. Risk factors were developed: June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and June rainfall < 50 mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000–2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and rainfall < 50 mm increased and then plateaued for both emissions scenarios. The percentage of years thresholds were exceeded was greater for RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The spatial distribution of high-risk counties changed over time. Results suggest corn growth distribution should be changed or adaptation strategies employed like planting resistant varieties, irrigating and planting earlier. There were significantly more counties exceeding thresholds in 2010–2040 compared to 2000–2030 suggesting that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.