Staff publications (SoE)

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Browsing Staff publications (SoE) by Publisher "Cranfield University"

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    Air traffic management accident risk, part 1: the limits of realistic modelling
    (Cranfield University, 2005-06-27T13:40:21Z) Brooker, Peter
    The prime goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is to control accident risk. Some key questions are posed, including: What do design safety targets really mean and imply for risk modelling? In what circumstances can future accident risk really be modelled with sufficient precision? If risk cannot be estimated with precision, then how is safety to be assured with traffic growth and operational/technical changes? This paper endeavours to answer these questions by an analysis of the nature of accidents, causal factors and practical collision risk modelling. The main theme is how best to combine sound safety evidence and real world hazard analysis in a coherent and systematic framework.
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    Air traffic management accident risk, part 2: repairing the deficiencies of ESARR4
    (Cranfield University, 2005-06-27T13:43:54Z) Brooker, Peter
    This is a critique of ESARR4 and its main supporting documents. ESARR4 is the Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement Number 4 (Eurocontrol SRC, 2001): ‘Risk Assessment and Mitigation in ATM’, ATM standing for Air Traffic Management. It is demonstrated that ESARR4 and its supporting documents are defective. There is a lack of clarity about responsibilities for ATM safety. The claims ESARR4 etc make for its proposed methodologies are overstated – not supported by sound evidence from real world hazard analysis. Serious negative effects from this defective document include mis-allocation of scarce safety resources and the diversion of attention away from real safety improvements – wasteful of regulators’ and managers’ time. Suggestions are made for repairing these deficiencies. The most important underlying change would be a refocusing on practical safety assessment based on methods that have already demonstrated their merits.
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    Future air traffic management systems and rational actors
    (Cranfield University, 2005-07-11T20:21:08Z) Brooker, Peter