Schwabe, OliverErkoyuncu, John AhmetShehab, Essam2020-07-242020-07-242020-02-18Schwabe O, Erkoyuncu JA, Shehab E. (2019) On the change of cost risk and uncertainty throughout the life cycle of manufacturing products. Procedia CIRP, Volume 86, 2019, pp. 239-2442212-8271https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2020.01.004https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/15594In practice cost estimators typically assume that cost risk and uncertainty continuously decrease across the whole product life cycle. Industry case studies and semi-structured interviews indicate that while cost risk and uncertainty decreases between technology readiness levels / stage gates, it increases when technology readiness levels / stage gates change. This increase can lead to cost risk and uncertainty levels above those at previous technology readiness levels / stage gates. This difference between assumptions in practice and evidence from case studies and semi-structured interviews may lead to the over- and / or under-assignment of capital reserves over time, thus resulting in binding project capital unnecessarily and / or the need to increase projects budgets in an unplanned manner. Further research is suggested regarding the scale of changes in cost risk and uncertainty when technology readiness level changes / stage gates are arrived at in order to improve robustness of forecasting effortsenAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Financial ContingencyCost Risk and UncertaintyDynamic PropagationArticle