Xia, HanbingHan, JiMilisavljevic-Syed, Jelena2023-06-202023-06-202023-06-09Xia H, Han J, Milisavljevic-Syed J. (2023) Predictive modeling for the quantity of recycled end-of-life products using optimized ensemble learners, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 197, October 2023, Article Number 1070730921-3449https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107073https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/19821The rapid development of machine learning algorithms provides new solutions for predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products. However, the Stacking ensemble model is less widely used in the field of predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products. To fill this gap, we propose a Stacking ensemble model that utilizes support vector regression, multi-layer perceptrons, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms as base models, and linear regression as the meta model. The k-nearest neighbor mega-trend diffusion method is applied to avoid overfitting problems caused by a small sample data set. The grid search and time series cross validation methods are utilized to optimize the proposed model. To verify and validate the proposed model, data related to China's end-of-life vehicles industry from 2006 to 2020 is used. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy and generalization ability in predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products.enAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Sustainable reverse supply chainEnd-of-life productsMachine learningPredictive analysisEnsemble modelArticle1879-0658