Cantarelli, Chantal C.Oglethorpe, David R.Wee, Bert van2021-05-172021-05-172021-05-11Cantarelli CC, Oglethorpe D, van Wee B. (2022) Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects, Transportation, Volume 49, Issue 2, April 2022, pp. 703–7330049-4488https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10191-7http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/16690Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused on lock-in in the implementation phase. Moreover, little is known about the way in which decision-makers perceive the risk of lock-in. In this paper we identify determinants of lock-in in the front-end phase and we reveal decision-makers’ perceptions of risk of lock-in. Our findings show that risk attitudes towards lock-in vary with the level of risk aversion. However, this is not sufficiently acute to drive the level of regret needed to avoid lock-in. This implies that decision-makers do not accurately assess the risk of lock-in and as such their risk perceptions are a mediating factor in the formation of lock-in. Based on escalation of commitment, path dependency, and prospect theory, the main contribution lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of lock-in in the front-end phase.enAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/major transportation projectsrisk perceptiondecision-makingdecision-makingpath dependencyescalation of commitmentlock-inArticle