Palla, ChiaraKingston, Jennifer2016-08-162016-08-162016-05-10Palla, C., Kingston, J., Forecast analysis on satellites that need de-orbit technologies: future scenarios for passive de-orbit devices, CEAS Space Journal, Vol. 8, Iss. 3, pp. 191-2001868-2502http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12567-016-0120-xhttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10323Propulsion-based de-orbit is a space-proven technology; however, this strategy can strongly limit operational lifetime, as fuel mass is dedicated to the de-orbiting. In addition previous reliability studies have identified the propulsion subsystem as one of the major contributors driving satellite failures. This issue brings the need to develop affordable de-orbit technologies with a limited reliance on the system level performance of the host satellite, ideally largely passive methods. Passive disposal strategies which take advantage of aerodynamic drag as the de-orbit force are particularly attractive because they are independent of spacecraft propulsion capabilities. This paper investigates the future market for passive de-orbit devices in LEO to aid in defining top-level requirements for the design of such devices. This is performed by considering the compliances of projected future satellites with the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee de-orbit time, to quantify the number of spacecraft that are compliant or non-compliant with the guidelines and, in this way, determine their need for the previously discussed devices. The study is performed by using the SpaceTrak™ database which provides future launch schedules, and spacecraft information; the de-orbit analysis is carried out by means of simulations with STELA. A case study of a passive strategy is given by the de-orbit mechanism technological demonstrator, which is currently under development at Cranfield University and designed to deploy a drag sail at the end of the ESEO satellite mission.enAttribution 4.0 InternationalThis is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in CEAS Space Journal on 10/05/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/ 10.1007/s12567-016-0120-xhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Space debris mitigationPassive de-orbit deviceDragOrbital decayFuture scenarioArticle