Öreg, ZsomborShin, HyosangTsourdos, Antonios2022-08-232022-08-232022-08-13Oreg Z, Shin H-S, Tsourdos A. (2023) On the underlying dynamics of traffic conflicts related to stochastic behaviour. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering, Volume 237, Issue 5, April 2023, pp. 1078-10930954-4100https://doi.org/10.1177/09544100221117432https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/18344The aim of this paper is to analyse why and how air traffic conflicts occur as a result of the stochastic behaviour of both the ownship and the intruder and to show how system-level characteristics can be derived from such an analysis. Ensemble dynamics in a given traffic scenario have already been analysed using multi-agent simulations by many; however, such an analysis is hardly ever backed up and interpreted in terms of an analytical study. By making use of directional conflict probability maps, characteristics of integral, system-level quantities can be explained, providing further insight into the relationship of speed distribution parameters and system performance quantities, namely, safety and throughput.enAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/unmanned traffic managementurban air mobilityanalytical modellingconflict detection analysisstochastic analysisArticle