CERES :: Browsing by Author "Alamdari, Fariba"

Browsing by Author "Alamdari, Fariba"

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Open Access
Capital productivity and investment : their role in profitable airline operations
(Cranfield University, 2003-04) Morrell, Peter; Alamdari, Fariba
The aim of the research was to develop and apply improved measures of capital productivity using published airline data, and to evaluate the role of capital investment and productivity in overall airline performance. As well as contributing to total factor productivity, capital productivity is a partial measure, and the investment upon which it is based should improve the productivity of other inputs to the production process, in particular labour and fuel. Productivity ratios require outputs and inputs to be combined and indexed. Index numbers have been developed using weights that are consistent with the underlying economic theory, and also meet various tests (such as reversal and products). Airline passenger, cargo and incidentals were combined using a number of such index number approaches. Capital inputs were estimated using annual lease equivalents which when discounted to the present over the expected future economic lives of the assets resulted gave either balance sheet values adjusted to a common year’s prices, or the total of the market values of individual assets (aircraft).
Open Access
Corporate failure and distress prediction based on the combination of quantitative and qualitative data sources: the case of new - entrant airlines in the United States
(Cranfield University, 1995-11) Guomundsson, Sveinn Vioar; Doganis, R.; Alamdari, Fariba
Since deregulation in the Unites States most jet operating new-entrant carriers have failed. Theories on competition had been put to the test and reality turned out to be different to the vision. The new-entrant airlines were to challenge the inefficient incumbent carriers and provide lower fares for the benefit of the public. To begin with they were successful, but were not able to create sustainable strategy to survive when the incumbents had adjusted to the new operating environment. The background to the failure predicament is examined in the thesis in considerable detail, in order to give a fairly good overview of the characteristics of new-entrants and the environment they existed in. Much attention is given to the new-entrants' strategy in order to explore past deficiencies and pave the way for successful alternatives. The European liberalisation is examined in order to contrast it with the US deregulation. The purpose of such contrast is to examine whether the lessons learned in the United States will apply to European new-entrants, both at the present and in the future. The literature on the causes of corporate failure is examined in detail in order to discover some underlying traits. Success is examined as well in order to identify whether success mirrors failure. In addition, the role of success in causing failure is highlighted. Statistical failure prediction models are explored in order to cast light on the present status of the failure prediction methodology. That overview explains the foundation for selecting the Logistic Regression statistical methodology for the thesis. Results of a questionnaire survey performed on new-entrant airlines, is introduced in terms of the dichotomous failure and distress variables. On the grounds of that qualitative survey and a new-entrant airline quantitative data-base, a number of failure prediction and distress models were developed. Finally, the best failure prediction models of these different sources are combined in order to examine whether such combination enhances prediction quality. The main conclusion of the thesis is that the combination of quantitative and qualitative data sources for failure and distress prediction of corporations, in this case new-entrant airlines, enhances predictability. Furthermore, the general conclusion is that no single prescription exists for success or avoidance of failure due to the dynamism of the corporations and the environment they operate in. However, few prerequisites of success and non-failure were found to be: (i) high relative quality; (ii) dominant market share on routes and airports; (iii) high relative aircraft utilisation; (iv) high relative employee utilisation; (v) controlled growth in terms of maintaining item (ii); low cost in terms of achieving items (iii) and (iv); and (vi) resourceful innovation without going into the extremities.
Open Access
A critical analysis of airline safety management with reference to pilots and aviation authority officers
(Cranfield University, 1996-12) Ho, Li-Chi; Taylor, A. Frank; Alamdari, Fariba
When we consider regional differences in air safety, a call for regional solutions is needed. This research probes the current situation in Taiwan and part of Asia from a regional perspective, aiming to better understand safety management in this region. Data was drawn from an extensive survey involving both airline pilots and aviation authority officers. The research investigated respondents' perceptions in airline safety management, and examined at their opinions about the role of aviation regulatory authorities and language disadvantages when exchanging safety information. The results demonstrated that there were key differences between the Captains and the First Officers surveyed in many aspects of airline safety management. The First Officers were more eager to have a blame-free and information-shared culture in current bureaucratic systems than were the Captains. Most pilots expected airline top management and aviation regulatory authorities to take more information responsibility for circulating safety related messages and information. It is believed that a confidential incident reporting system is one of the most appropriate tools for improving safety. It would be sensitive enough to provide early identification and warning for rooting out underlying causal factors, and allow constant tracking of hazards and evaluation of risks they involve. Hence, the second part of the thesis discusses the feasibility of establishing a national-level confidential incident reporting system in Taiwan from the viewpoints of the airline pilots and the air traffic controllers. The survey showed that there was great expectation for the introduction of a national- level confidential reporting system. However, there was need to undertake a high profile promotional period within the aviation community, followed by a two-year trial period. This would help to motivate potential reporters, eliminate their fear of punitive action, and enable consensus and support to be sought from the airlines. Initially, it is advised to begin with the participant of flight crew and air traffic controllers only. At the end of the trial period, an evaluation of the system achievements was recommended. After two years of successful operation the system might be extended to include maintenance personnel, cabin crews and other relevant parties.
Open Access
The empirical analysis of the impact of alliances on airline operations.
(Elsevier, 2005-05) Alamdari, Fariba; Iatrou, Kostas
Airline alliances dominate the air transport industry with the largest carriers belonging to one of the four alliance groupings—Wings,1 Star Alliance, oneworld, SkyTeam—which represent 56% of world revenue passenger kilometers. Although much research has been carried out to evaluate the impact of alliance membership on performance of airlines, little has been done on the perceived impacts by participating airlines. This paper gathers opinions of all the airlines, belonging to the four global alliances in 2002 on the impact alliances have had on their traffic and on their performance in general. To achieve this, a comprehensive survey of the alliance management departments of airlines participating in the alliances was carried out. The survey examined which type of cooperation among carriers (frequent flyer programmes, code share, strategic alliance without antitrust immunity, strategic alliance with antitrust immunity) have produced the most positive impact on traffic and which types of route (short haul, long haul, hub–hub, hub–non-hub, non-hub–non-hub) have been affected the most. In addition, the respondent airlines quantified the effect alliances have had on specific areas of their operation, such as load factors, traffic, costs, revenue and fares. Their responses are analysed by alliance groupings, under airline and under geographic region to establish which group, type of carrier and geographic region has benefited the most. The results show that each of the four global alliances groupings has experienced different results according to the type of collaboration agreed amongst their member airlines.
Open Access
EU network carriers, low cost carriers and consumer behaviour: A Delphi study of future trends
(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2007-09-30T00:00:00Z) Mason, Keith J.; Alamdari, Fariba
This paper uses a Delphi panel of 26 air transport experts to forecast the structure of air transport in the EU in 2015 in respect of network carriers, low cost airlines and passenger behaviour. Secondary research was used to construct a number of scenarios about the future structure and strategy of EU network and low cost airlines and also traveller behaviour. Consensus of opinions was sought amongst the panel in a two-round process. The consensus opinion of the Delphi experts was that; network carrier consolidation will reduce EU players to less than five, there will be only two or three large low cost carriers, Business Class products will disappear on short hauls. and leisure travellers will take an increasing number of multiple short-duration holidays.
Open Access
How the consumer confidence index could increase air travel demand forecast accuracy?
(Cranfield University, 2012-09) Teyssier, Narjesse; Alamdari, Fariba; Morrell, Peter; Lei, Zheng
Because of the complex nature of the air transportation industry with continuous changes in the environment, the past records of air traffic forecasters, either using trend extrapolation or causal models or even more sophisticated methods have not produced accurate results. In recent years, the trend has been to develop air travel demand forecasts based on econometric equations, which specify a relationship between passenger traffic and a number of traditional key economic variables. However these forecasts do not take into account air traffic downturns or strong increases. Periods of economic or political uncertainty are associated with consumer confidence volatility, suggesting that swings in confidence could influence air travel demand. The failure of forecasters to predict the repeated peaks and troughs since 2001 has renewed interest in supplementing econometric forecasts with qualitative indicators such as consumer confidence indices. These variables are available for some countries and the aim of this research is to find whether forecasts based on these indices are more accurate in predicting short-term traffic up and downs. Through the analysis of three case studies, this thesis examines how the introduction of a confidence index in the air travel demand model, including only macroeconomic variables, could have some ability to improve the forecast accuracy of the model. For each case study, the demand for the market has been divided according to the existing supply side segments, namely legacy carriers, low cost carriers and non-scheduled airlines. The results show that this confidence index has some ability to improve the forecast accuracy of both, the global top-down and the bottom-up models built for some supply side segments, notably the legacy ones during periods of uncertainty such as 1991, 2001, 2008 and 2009. The results are also suggesting that the forecasting power of this index is increasing when applied to more mature markets such as the demand linked to the US legacy carriers or to the European charter airlines.This study is appraising the performance of consumer confidence indexes by examining their impact on different air travel demand forecasts.
Open Access
The identification and analysis of the critical success factors of strategic airline alliances
(Cranfield University, 1996-10) Bissessur, Abhimanyu; Alamdari, Fariba; Doganis, R.
Since the beginning of the decade, the structure of the industry has been changing rapidly as airlines from various parts of the world have been forming alliances. These alliances transcend the traditional types of co-operation which have always existed in the industry and constitute a strategy designed to give the partners a competitive edge. However, many of these alliances are failing. This can be attributed to a poor understanding of the managerial and operational characteristics of airline alliances. This research attempts to correct this deficiency by identifying and analysing the factors which are important to airline alliance success. In order to set the background of the research, the various ways in which firms have traditionally been linked are reviewed. The evolution of co-operation in the airline industry in the US, Europe and Asia is traced and the forces which have driven airlines to adopt the alliance strategy are identified. The various collaborative strategies of airlines are described. The definition of alliance success is critical to this research. Various definitions are explored and the ones considered most appropriate for this study are taken as alliance stability and alliance operational performance. The issues to be considered in ensuring airline alliance stability are qualitatively analysed. Among the most important ones are a pragmatic and careful approach in the formation process of the alliance, an understanding of the relationship between the partners with particular importance given to commitment and the generation of trust, and recognition of the evolutionary process of alliances as the priorities of the partners change over time. The operational objectives of airline alliances are identified and classified as either market-related or production-related. Market-related objectives include economies of scope and density, and market power. Alliance performance is mathematically modelled using linear and logit regression techniques. The results of the analyses point to the following: network size and network complementarity, network integration,connection quality, the type of flight (on-line, code-shared or interline) and alliance frequency of service as important alliance success factors. The reaction of competitors is also found to determine the benefits of airline collaboration. On the production side, the objective of allying is to decrease unit costs and increase efficiency by combining certain operational areas. A case study of Austrian Airlines is performed to identify the cost and productivity areas which have benefited from alliance formation. Graphical analysis shows that benefits were reaped mostly in the areas of labour productivity and aircraft utilisation. This implies that these are the areas which should be targeted when making use of the alliance strategy. Unit costs were not found to be greatly affected by alliance formation.
Open Access
The impact of airline alliances on partners' traffic
(Cranfield University, 2004-01) Iatrou, Kostas; Alamdari, Fariba; Morrell, Peter
Airline alliances have been dominating the air transport industry since the 1990s and by now the four strategic alliances, in which almost all of the major airlines participate, control the 56% of the world RPK. The thesis examines the airline alliance phenomenon in its entirety and more specifically, it examines the reasons and circumstances that have led to the formulation of these alliances and the impact these alliances have had on the participating airlines. A key parameter airlines use to assess their own performance and that of alliances is traffic. Thus, the present research examines alliances impact on the traffic of the allied partners by different types of routes (hub-hub, hub-non hub and non hub-non hub), different types of cooperation (FFP, code share, strategic alliance without and with antitrust immunity) and by the length of the route. In addition, the thesis analyses which alliance groupings, which type of airline and which geographical area have produced the best results from the alliances. To achieve these objectives, the thesis is divided into a theoretical and an empirical part. The theoretical approach starts with an industry alliance overview and then moves to the presentation of airline alliances, by discussing the reasons that have led to their establishment, the evolution of the regulatory framework around which airline alliances have developed, the definition of airline alliances, the different forms they have taken, their advantages and disadvantages; and finally, the past and current alliance groups. The empirical part focuses on the alliance traffic and analyses it around two different axes. The first consists of a survey in which the airlines participating in alliances were asked to assess their alliance participation and to quantify the impact of alliances on several parameters of their operation and performance and more specifically, on their passenger traffic. The second analyzes this impact on the basis of an econometric model that seeks to determine and measure any positive impact on traffic volume generated by alliances. The findings indicate that airlines are satisfied from their alliance experience as they have helped them achieve the main purpose for which they have resorted to alliances, that is to secure increased network coverage with little capital investment. Both the survey and the econometric model indicate that airline alliances have led to an increase in passenger traffic amounting to 10%. According to the survey, this traffic increase is mainly registered on hubhub routes while the econometric model indicates that this increase is evenly distributed on hub-hub and hub-non hub routes. The benefits result mostly from the marketing cooperation and appear within one or two years from the establishment of the alliance. Alliances may bring about cost reduction, but this depends on the level of integration among the partners. Almost all participants agree that alliances are the final stage of airline cooperation and that there will be no or very few mergers.
Open Access
Leadership and organisation as a function of the different prevailing professional cultures
(Cranfield University, 2006-01) Lumpé, Marc-Philippe; Alamdari, Fariba
The following research project develops leadership and organisational structures that are in accordance with the requirements created by different professional backgrounds. In order to do, that the theoretical construct Professional Culture is introduced. This construct unites the whole set of values, convictions and behavioural patterns that evolve within a common professional background. Further, Professional Culture is put into relation to its peer constructs of National and Organisational Culture. In a subsequent step, the different Professional Cultures and their characteristics are identified and appropriate leadership and organisational structures are proposed. This is undertaken with the help of an extensive empirical study and a broad literature review leading to the inclusion of a significant theoretical base into the study. In particular the so-called GLOBE-Study proved to be beneficial. The methodology used is based on both a quantitative and a qualitative approach in order to gain the maximum amount and quality of data possible. This methodology was employed in both a significant pilot study and the main study. The surveyed sample itself is composed of 196 respondents for the pilot study and 507 respondents from various organisations and countries for the main study which gives the study a sound empirical base. In total, twelve different Professional Cultures are isolated and characterised. These Professional Cultures include a vast variety of different occupations, stretching from Blue Collar Workers to Executive Management. An example for the differences in requirements encountered is the appropriate leadership style for blue collar workers and the one for executive management. Whereas the fon-ner explicitly favour a more steering and guiding leadership style, the latter prefer and need fteedom and inspiration by their leaders. Finally, a cross-evaluation is undertaken in order to validate the insights gained in the course of the research project. In summary, the following study gives a comprehensive overview of a number of different Professional Cultures and their characteristics , including their corresponding leadership and organisational structures.
Open Access
Quality management practices in the south east Asian airlines' operations function
(Cranfield University, 2002-08) Subagyo, Toto Hardiyanto; Alamdari, Fariba; Bank, John
Despite the recent Asian economics crisis (1997-1998), air traffic volumes in Asia- Pacific will continue to grow over the next decade. As the market is becoming more and more attractive, the competition amongst the airlines operating in the region has challenged the Southeast Asian carriers. The demanded quality of product/service by the customer has become a crucial issue. The ability to provide quality products and services is increasingly becoming a key determinant of an airline's business success. The quality of any organisation's products and services is determined by the core business or operational processes that create them. If the chain of processes is made effective and efficient, then the resulting products and services will also be effective and efficient. Airline business activities consist of sales and marketing, engineering and maintenance, flight operations, and ground services. For the purpose of this study the operations function, which consists of aircraft maintenance, flight operations and ground services, becomes a focus, as it is the core activity of operational processes that causes the success or failure of delivering quality products and services to the customer. The study was aimed at developing a model of quality management practices for the operations function of the `developing' airlines of Southeast Asia. It was conducted through extensive literature and field studies, based on the quality management practices of certain airlines in Southeast Asia and Western Europe. The study found that there were twelve critical success factors of quality practices in the operations function, which should be managed differently depending on the airlines' organisational contexts, in order to keep their operational effectiveness and efficiency at the required level. The findings configured a model that provides airlines' executives or managers with guidelines, which they can consult in their decision-making process when conducting quality improvement for their organisation. They may well be used by other airlines as well. The findings from the study also contribute to the knowledge of process quality, and the applicability of the quality concept developed in the social and business disciplines of airlines' operational organisation.
Open Access
Regional development in airlines and travel agents relationship.
(Elsevier, 2002-09) Alamdari, Fariba
On average, 17% of airline operating cost are attributed to distribution costs which are associated with commissions to travel agents, ticketing, credit card fees, CRS fees and promotion. In recent years, airlines in North America and in Europe have been questioning the role of travel agents in the distribution chain and renegotiating commission fee structures. As a result, some large agents have introduced a management fee philosophy where the clients, especially corporations, pay a fee to the travel agent in return for predetermined services. Such services include providing up-to-the minute reports on travel patterns of employees, effectiveness of travel policies, advice on complicated itineraries, etc. Such changes in airline and travel agent relationships initially started in the US and were followed by the European carriers. However, Asian carriers have been slow in following their US and European counterparts. This raises a number of questions: What are the barriers, if any for Asian carriers, to follow their counter parts in Europe and US? Would airlines in the three regions be able to bypass travel agents and sell directly to their customers? Would the customers prefer to go direct to airlines? Would there be a variation in the airlines, and agents, relationship in each region? This paper addresses these questions by analysing the distribution strategies of major carriers in the US, Europe and Asia. It also discusses the changing relationship between airlines and travel agents, and the trend towards direct selling by airlines in each region.
Open Access
Space air-conditioning of mechanically-ventilated rooms : computation of flow and heat transfer
(Cranfield University, 1986-06) Mohammad, W. S.; Hammond, G. P.; Alamdari, Fariba
Computational studies of two- and three-dimensional, turbulent recirculating flows within mechanically-ventilated enclosures are reported. Two principal cases are examined: (i) two-dimensional offset jets: and (ii) three-dimensional flow induced in rooms by supply jets emanating from low or high side-wall registers. The calculations were undertaken using iterative finite-domain proceedures which solve the conservation equations for mass, momentum and enthalpy, together with additional transport equations for the turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate . The effect of buoyancy waS. explicitly accounted for when modelling these equations, in order that they could be employed to simulate buoyant flow in ventilated rooms. Computations of the mean velocity, temperature and convective heat transfer distribution are reported, and compared with experimental data where available. A modified version of the two-dimensional elliptic code of Pun and Spalding (1977) was employed to simulate the offset jet case. These involve the discharge of a turbulent jet parallel to a flat surface and eventually attaching to it. The investigations covered a wide range of offset ratio (3.5-32.4). and the computed flow properties are compared with measurements from several sources. These comparisons show good agreement downstream of the reattachment point, while some discrepancies are evident upstream from this location. The differences therefore occur mainly in the recirculating flow region, and are believed to arise from shortcoming in the starting profiles, the turbulance model and the treatment of the near-wall flow. A three-dimensional elliptic finite-domain code was developed to simulate the complex, jet-induced flow within rectangular enclosures. The code was verified using both laminar and turbulent flow test cases on simpler geometries. Comparisons with the measurements and predictions reported by previous researchers were employed for this purpose. Subsequentlyr the ventilated room simulations were undertaken using three different ventilation arrangements with thermal conditions corresponding to isothermall non-buoyant (constant property) and buoyancy"affected flows. The computations were again compared with experimental and numerical predictions of previous researchers. This comparison displayed generally good agreement with these sources. A study of the flow and convective heat exchange within a warm-air heated rom, for which buoyancy effects are significant# is also reported in a bound paper (Alamdari, Hammonda nd Mohammad, 1986) for three different heat loads. Its aim to assess the balance between accuracy and economy provided by the present higher-level method compared with the intermediate-level convection model of Alamdari and Hammond (1982) when used to supply building thermal simulation programs with accurate convection heat transfer data. The computed results of both models were compared, and indicate that the intermediate-level is a valuable alternative source that can satisfy the needs of building thermal modellers. It provides resonable accuracy at a very modest cost in computing terms.

Browsing by Author "Alamdari, Fariba"

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