Browsing by Author "Allen, Peter"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    An agent-based model for energy service companies
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2015-04-01T00:00:00Z) Robinson, Marguerite; Varga, Liz; Allen, Peter
    The residential housing sector is a major consumer of energy accounting for approximately one third of carbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Achieving a sustainable, low-carbon infrastructure necessitates a reduced and more efficient use of domestic energy supplies. Energy service companies offer an alternative to traditional providers, which supply a single utility product to satisfy the unconstrained demand of end users, and have been identified as a potentially important actor in sustainable future economies. An agent-based model is developed to examine the potential of energy service companies to contribute to the large scale upgrading of household energy efficiency, which would ultimately lead to a more sustainable and secure energy infrastructure. The migration of households towards energy service companies is described by an attractiveness array, through which potential customers can evaluate the future benefits, in terms of household energy costs, of changing provider. It is shown that self-financing is a limiting factor to the widespread upgrading of residential energy efficiency. Greater reductions in household energy costs could be achieved by committing to longer term contracts, allowing upgrade costs to be distributed over greater time intervals. A steadily increasing cost of future energy usage lends an element of stability to the market, with energy service companies displaying the ability to retain customers on contract expiration. The model highlights how a greater focus on the provision of energy services, as opposed to consumable products, presents a viable approach to reducing future energy costs and usage.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Innovations for sustainable lifestyles – an agent based model approach
    (Springer, 2018-06-28) Allen, Peter; Robinson, M.; Butans, Eugene; Varga, Liz
    An important aspect of any scientific approach to sustainability must be methods by which the impacts of possible innovations can be assessed. Clearly, we need to make massive changes in our lifestyles if we are to get anywhere near ‘sustainability’. In this paper, an ‘agent-based model’ is developed which for this initial presentation explores probable impacts on household consumption and emissions of possible innovations. The model randomly picks a large number (here 10,000, but it can be much larger) of households from four different countries and calculates the effects resulting from the adoption of specific innovations. The ‘lifestyle’ of the households within the area studied is divided into four different ‘domains’. These are living, food, mobility and energy. Innovations are launched in the four different domains and the model shows the overall effects on the total input requirements (materials, energy, etc.), the household and food wastes and the CO2 emissions, showing how far the system moves towards sustainability. By using the sustainability criteria of 8000 kg ‘input material’ per year per individual developed by the Wuppertal Institute (Lettenmeier et al. in Resources 3:488–515, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3390/resources3030488, http://www.mdpi.com/journal/resources, ISSN 2079-9276), we can calculate how far the nation or region is from sustainability after adopting possible innovations. This is a measure of the total inputs required per individual per year. It allows us to show that for different countries, with widely different climates (e.g. Finland and Spain), different household innovations would have a greater or lesser impact on attaining ‘sustainable lifestyles’. The model does not pretend to develop a full simulation of each system, including the ecosystem, type of economy, etc., but does look at the effect an innovation in one household domain will have on all four domains, thereby providing information that can improve current decisions. It also demonstrates that, although ‘households’ can do much to improve the situation by reducing their demand for energy and materials, some actions at a national/regional level will be required to achieve sustainability. For example, sustainability will require an end to the use of fossil fuels for transportation and a switch to ‘clean’ electrical power generation from renewables and nuclear sources. Without this change, these countries will find it impossible to reach a sustainable lifestyle.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Multi-utility service companies: a complex systems model of increasing resource efficiency
    (Wiley, 2015-06-19) Varga, Liz; Robinson, Marguerite; Allen, Peter
    Domestic households account for a significant portion of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Gains in energy and resource efficiency are undermined by the continuing rise in consumption. A multiutility service company (MUSCo) could enable households to make efficiency improvements through energy technologies and demand management, thus reducing overall consumption. We present a system dynamics model for the domestic energy demand and supply system in the United Kingdom, in which MUSCos compete with traditional utility providers. The market transition toward a leasing contracted service is examined and various potential business models explored.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Sustainability from household and infrastructure innovations
    (Springer, 2021-06-21) Allen, Peter; Butans, Eugene; Robinson, Marguerite; Varga, Liz
    In this paper, we look at the impact of different possible changes and innovations in the national/regional infrastructure and of individual households on the reduction of their material ‘footprint’ and carbon emissions. We have developed an ‘agent-based model’ (ABM) that explores the impact of possible changes in regional infrastructure and in ‘household agent’ behaviour and lifestyles. We study households of the UK, Germany, Spain and Finland, and calculate the overall effects of the diffusion of such changes and innovations. The ‘lifestyle’ of households is divided into four different ‘Domains’—Living, Food, Mobility and Energy. For each change, the model shows the linked effects of adoption, and total household input requirements (materials, energy etc.), household and food wastes and CO2 emissions. This informs policy concerning which modifications will be most effective. We can also estimate approximately how much ‘clean’ electricity will be needed in each country for household needs and their electric vehicles