CERES :: Browsing by Author "Allen, Peter M."

Browsing by Author "Allen, Peter M."

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Open Access
An adaptive agent-based multicriteria simulation system
(1998-07-15) Neumann, Uwe; Allen, Peter M.
It is argued that traditional models of urban development are characterised by an aggregate mechanistic description of statistical units. Furthermore, important aspects of transportation are not included in these models, but urban development can be regarded as a combined process of land use change, transportation system and lifestyles. New 4 developments in evolutionary theory provide a new paradigm for a microsimulation approach on the level of individuals, which accounts for diversity, learning and change in the population o f the modelled system. In this thesis a framework for agent-based simulations will be presented for which this new evolutionary theory provides the theoretical background. The essence of the approach builds on the mutual interdependencies between all system elements, in this case inhabitants and their environment. This principle is extended to change in the interactions of the system over time, leading to an adaptive system that mutually specifies all its elements over time. On this framework an adaptive agent-based model for the use in urban simulations is built. The agents are equipped with a set of intrinsic needs, the satisfaction of which is expressed through a set of corresponding budgets. The budget state is fed into a Fuzzy Logic rule base for decision making. As opposed to many existing approaches to microsimulation, the agents are designed to change their behavioural rules during run time according to experience. Different adaptation strategies are tested and compete with each other. The results of the model vindicate the conceptual framework. The essence of the underlying theory - mutual specification based on satisficing as opposed to optimisation - leads to a cognitive approach to the simulation of socio-natural systems. Microsimulation based on adaptive agents can help integrate many aspects of urban models, which are conventionally treated by separate models and can help clarify the implications of change for the inhabitants o f an urban system.
Open Access
Aerospace Supply Chains as Evolutionary Networks of Activities: Innovation Via Risk-Sharing Partnerships
(Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2008-12-01T00:00:00Z) Rose-Anderssen, Christen; Baldwin, James S.; Ridgway, Keith; Allen, Peter M.; Varga, Liz
In the aerospace industry competitive advantage is searched through product innovation. This paper sets out to explore the effects that relationship development in the commercial aerospace supply chains have on innovation and competitive advantage. A perspective of supply chains as complex activity networks is used for data analysis based on in-depth interviews in a global setting. Applying these concepts of supply chains as the interaction of multiple work activities assists in comprehending the forces of change. The processes of change are characterized by expansive learning processes of creating instruments for initializing, developing and sustaining these relationships. These processes take place in a terrain of complex power exercises. The long-term effects are totally dependent on nurturing the relationships. The findings may be useful to practitioners in understanding how implementation of successful supply chain changes may come about. It promotes risk-sharing partnerships as instruments for innovation. The paper provides evidence of changing relationships in commercial aerospace supply chains.
Open Access
The Coevolution Of The Firm And The Supply Network: A Complex Systems Perspective
(Cranfield University, 2009-04) Varga, Liz; Allen, Peter M.
A complex adaptive systems approach has been permeating organizational studies and the field of supply network management helping to describe and explain supply network dynamics and emergent inter-firm structures. This has improved our theoretical knowledge of the nature of supply networks transforming raw materials into products, within a constantly changing environment. From the early days of simple structures, describing bi-lateral, local arrangements between firms for the creation of relatively simple products, we are now in an environment of various supply network archetypes, describing different global sourcing regimes of highly integrated, sophisticated products within multi-tier networks. This thesis is a study of the coevolution of the firm and supply network in the commercial aerospace manufacturing sector producing jetliners of 100 or more seats. One of the contributions of this research is to demonstrate how the holistic approach of complexity science can be applied to describe, understand and gain new insight into the coevolution of the firm and the supply network. Based on the findings of multiple interviews and questionnaires in eight global aerospace firms across multiple supply chain tiers, this research finds high-performing clusters of inter-firm characteristics, plus the aspects of structure and integration which deliver the supply network performance. Practitioners can use these specific results to examine their own firms and the new coevolutionary conceptual framework developed in the thesis may aid future research studies of complex adaptive systems in practice. The simple survey design and analysis method used in the final research stage of this research, has the potential for use in other industries, markets and other complex adaptive systems generally to examine performance outcomes and the effects of having or adopting new inter-firm characteristics. Finally, implications for policy include the potential to legitimize supply networks in order to stimulate competition and innovation in the economy.
Open Access
A complex system, agent based model for studying and improving the resilience of production and distribution networks
(Cranfield University, 2007-03) Datta, Partha Priya; Allen, Peter M.; Christopher, Martin
The very complexity and the extended reach of today’s globe-spanning supply chain networks, the low inventory levels and lack of redundancies required to achieve efficient operations expose businesses to a huge range of unexpected disruptions. This calls for building resilience in supply chains, which is not just recovery from the mishaps, but is a proactive, structured and integrated exploration of capabilities within the supply chain to resist and win against unforeseen happenings. Literature on supply chain and organisational resilience are informative in identifying resilience enhancing strategies and capabilities, but a detailed dynamic analysis of behaviour of the supply chain to understand the suitability of different resilience capabilities over time and under different scenarios is not carried out. The thesis addresses this gap by studying the internal decision making mechanisms, rules and control procedures through development of an agent-based model and its application to a paper tissue manufacturing supply chain. The model with a decentralised informational structure with informed and intelligent combination of push or pull type of replenishment strategy, flexibility, agility, redundancy and efficiency is found to enhance the resilience of the actual supply network in the face of large deviation of demand from forecasts. The effects of adopting several resilience improvement strategies in tandem or in isolation and the impact of applying different behavioural rules by different agents are studied in this thesis by carrying out numerical experimentation. The findings from the experiments suggest that, however flexible the resources are, however well-informed the different members are, however well-integrated the members are through coordination and communication, however wellequipped a supply chain is with mitigation and recovery capabilities the individual managerial judgements that can obtain a balance between various dimensions of performance (both global and local efficiency, quality and speed of responding to customer orders) and resilience (speedy reaction, maintaining buffers, flexibility in resource management) play the most important role in improving the resilience of the entire network. An important contribution of this thesis is to produce a conceptual framework for supply chain resilience. This framework is used to test the appropriateness of different resilience enhancement procedures. Another significant contribution of this thesis is to provide a theoretical template for further research in supply chain resilience. The template will guide development of effective procedures for managing different situations of uncertainty. By using complex systems modelling methods, such as multi-agent models described in the thesis, outcomes of the system under a significant range of possible agent behavioural rules and environmental events can be explored, and improved levels of functioning and of resilience can be found. Building such models as a means to understand and improve resilience of supply networks is a significant contribution.
Open Access
A complex systems approach to modelling environmental catastrophe
(Cranfield University, 1994-08) Oxley, Tim; Allen, Peter M.
In recognition of the widespread deterioration of the natural environment, and the continual emergence of sudden catastrophic environmental changes resulting from complex interactions of theretofore apparently disparate phenomena, this research presents a complex systems approach to the modelling of such environmental catastrophes. Recognizing contemporary views of complexity and evolution, this research presents a dynamic complex systems model which displays emergent characteristics which can be directly related to the modelled phenomena - linking acid rain and eutrophication - and the study region, the Rutland Water catchment. This is achieved through the definition of a catastrophe indicator which indicates both the proximity and magnitude of catastrophe arising from the non-linear and discontinuous acid-phosphorus relationship within the soil domain which lies at the heart of this Chemical Time Bomb phenomenon. This facilitates assessment of the vulnerability of the Rutland Water catchment to potential propagation of this CTB given continued acidification and phosphate accumulation. The main contributions of this research may thus be found in the following areas: Development of a dynamic complex systems model - transferable to alternative catchments due to the minimal data requirements and its generic representation - which may be used to describe non-point sources of phosphates as part of assessments of potential eutrophication, overcoming such limitations found in existing models. * Definition of a catastrophe indicator( Re)- which highlights both the proximity and magnitude of catastrophe describing a specific Chemical Time Bomb phenomenon whereby the soil suddenly changes from being a sink to a source of phosphates; long-term accumulations of phosphate in the soil being released as a consequence of soil acidification in the short-term. Presentation of a complex systems approach - hinged upon this concept of a catastrophe indicator - to the representation of non-linearities and discontinuities between heretofore apparently disparate phenomena which are 'competing for a common resource.
Open Access
Diversity and learning for innovation: Dialogue for collaboration
(Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2008-03) Rose-Anderssen, Christen; Allen, Peter M.
This paper aims to develop an approach for improving linguistic skills to enhance work collaboration. Design/methodology/approach – A framework has been developed using principles of complex systems thinking, cultural-historical activity theory and theories of intercultural communication in an action research setting. Findings – Organisational development and change are never a straightforward task, which the case clearly demonstrates. These are tension-filled processes of continuously changing power relationships and distances between people. The development of shared sense making is an iterative learning process. Co-developing shared communication strategies enhances dialogue and collaboration. Research limitations/implications – A single and in practice unsuccessful case has been the basis of the research findings. Although saturation of data was therefore never reached, typical inhibiting factors were brought to the surface. Controversy and underlying inhibitions may not always be easy to detect in successful cases. The understanding from this unsuccessful case may therefore be helpful for further research. Practical implications – Collaboration and change in the workplace are complex processes and are therefore difficult to implement. Collective approaches for developing communication strategies are highly dependent on including all affected actors. Originality/value – The realisation of the complexity of organisational change processes is important. This creates an awareness of a need and responsibility for everyone affected to try and co-develop the practices for change. It is the bringing together of the diverse experiences into learning processes through dialogue that facilitates these changes. There must be an appreciation that the outcome is still unpredictable in a process of change. Collective ownership of the changes is essential for success.
Open Access
Evolution: Complexity, uncertainty and innovation
(Springer Verlag, 2014-02-21) Allen, Peter M.
Complexity science provides a general mathematical basis for evolutionary thinking. It makes us face the inherent, irreducible nature of uncertainty and the limits to knowledge and prediction. Complex, evolutionary systems work on the basis of on-going, continuous internal processes of exploration, experimentation and innovation at their underlying levels. This is acted upon by the level above, leading to a selection process on the lower levels and a probing of the stability of the level above. This could either be an organizational level above, or the potential market place. Models aimed at predicting system behaviour therefore consist of assumptions of constraints on the micro-level – and because of inertia or conformity may be approximately true for some unspecified time. However, systems without strong mechanisms of repression and conformity will evolve, innovate and change, creating new emergent structures, capabilities and characteristics. Systems with no individual freedom at their lower levels will have predictable behaviour in the short term – but will not survive in the long term. Creative, innovative, evolving systems, on the other hand, will more probably survive over longer times, but will not have predictable characteristics or behaviour. These minimal mechanisms are all that are required to explain (though not predict) the co-evolutionary processes occurring in markets, organizations, and indeed in emergent, evolutionary communities of practice. Some examples will be presented briefly.
Open Access
Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach
(De Gruyter Open, 2015-08-26) Rylatt, R. Mark; Snape, J. Richard; Allen, Peter M.; Ardestani, Babak M.; Boait, Ekkehard; Fan, Denis; Fletcher, Graham; Gammon, Rupert; Lemon, Mark; Pakka, Vijay; Rynikiewicz, Christophe; Savill, Mark A.; Smith, Stefan; Strathern, M.; Varga, Liz
Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.
Open Access
Integrated systems modelling of the interaction between water resources and agriculture
(Cranfield University, 1999-10) Robinson, Allan; Allen, Peter M.
Environmental problems associated with the use of water are inherently complex, involving the interaction of several different systems. Further, there is often limited data on the interaction, because of its location between disciplines. In order to study these problems in a quantitative, policy relevant way, a numerical model is required that integrates the different systems and is tailored to contain the processes important to the interaction. A numerical water resource system model is developed to study the problems associated with the interaction between agriculture and water. The model integrates an econometric model of farmer behaviour with a dynamic model of water flow and solute transport. The Argolid valley in Greece represents an area where severe environmental problems have arisen as a result of the overexploitation of groundwater for agriculture. When applied to the Argolid valley the water resource system model reproduces the evolution of the environmental problems that have arisen. It is then demonstrated that the model can be used to investigate some future scenarios and policy options related to the environmental problems that have developed. The main contribution of this research is to demonstrate that a properly designed numerical model that reproduces the dynamic interaction between human behaviour and the physical environment can enable the exploration of the evolution of environmental problems despite a lack of calibration data. Having achieved this the model can then be used in a policy relevant way to investigate the implications from a range of different, possible policy options.
Open Access
Measuring collective competencies of organisations - a systematic review of literature
(Cranfield University, 2007-08) Zibell, Laurent; Allen, Peter M.
The present Systematic Review explores the existing academic literature on the instruments to measure collective competences of organisations. The purpose is to identify those that could be further used in a PhD work on the competences of organisations involved in co-operative R&D projects. This area of research is at the intersection of Strategic Management, Human Resources Management, Evolutionary Economics and Business Performance Measurement. The methodology starts with a set of keyword strings for search in bibliographic databases. The extracted articles were then filtered for relevance and quality according to pre-defined criteria. An expansion of the resulting list was performed using cross-referencing and citation analysis. The final core list contains 33 articles. Descriptive statistics illustrate an emergent and highly fragmented field: the number of articles in the list rises sharply over the last 25 years, but no agreement is reached on either the nature of the variables to measure nor on the means to do so. The understandings of the concept of competence either aim at classifying firms (in a minority of articles), or at ranking them. In the latter case, the concept is assimilated to the proximity to best practices, to an efficiency or to an effectiveness in reaching functionally defined goals. Four families of methods are used in the existing literature to measure collective competences of organisations: questionnaires, exploitation of secondary data, case studies and interviews, in descending order of frequency in the core list. The selected articles provide a set of relevant concepts, of methods, of constructs, of third-party quantitative metrics and of individual questionnaire items useful for the further research.
Open Access
Modelling Organisational Evolution and Change - a Complex Systems Modelling Perspective
(Cranfield University, 2008-05) Strathern, M.; Allen, Peter M.
The cumulative output of these papers emphasise that modelling organisational evolution and change from a complex systems perspective makes a significant contribution to organisational studies and brings new insight and understandings both to theory and practice. It is also true that the studies and modelling presented in these papers has pushed forward the boundaries of complex systems science, again both in theory and practice. The papers have made new findings and understandings of the processes, drivers and outcomes of the evolution of social systems and organisations through the development of new evolutionary models and frameworks that contribute both to organisational and complexity sciences. They have through a number of innovations based in complexity science addressed questions in organisational science concerning the importance of knowledge and learning, together with questions about the evolution and survival of organisations and industries. These innovations have played back into and developed complexity science.
Open Access
Modelling Sustainable Energy Futures for the UK
(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2014-03-01T00:00:00Z) Allen, Peter M.; Varga, Liz
As a result of signing the Kyoto Agreement the UK will need to reduce carbon emissions to 20% of their 1990 value by 2050. This will require a complete change in power generation over the next 40 years. The system involved is immensely complex, with multiple agents, levels of description, new technologies and new policies and actions. However, here we develop a relatively simple spatial, dynamic model representing a basic part of the problem - the changing geographical distribution of electrical generation capacity in the UK. It runs from 2010 until 2050 and allows the exploration of the different pattern of investments in, and closures of, generation capacity. It was developed as part of the CASCADE proejct on Smart Grids to provide scenarios for annual changes in generating capacity. It provides generation scenarios for much more complex, multi-agent models, such as that developed in the CASCADE project, that represent the short-term (30 mins time step) dynamics of the wholesale and retail energy markets. The moel allows us to explore different possible pathways to 2050 and the difficulty of the overall endeavour. In order to increase electricity production but reduce CO2 emissions, we shall need to close our current coal/gas generating plants and make a vast investment in new low carbon generating capacity. The model allows us to rapidly see the possibleconsequences of innovations in technologies, and to re-shape plans in the light of new opportunities and circumstances.
Open Access
A Network-based framework for strategic conflict resolution
(2009-11-17T18:27:30Z) Powell, J. H.; Allen, Peter M.
Strategic conflict in this work refers to the spectrum of co-operative and oppositional activities in which organisations engage when their interests meet. The origin of the work is in the management and prediction of corporate strategic conflict, but it will be seen that there are significant similarities between corporate struggle and that of international relations. Following a review of the nature of conflict and the characteristics of strategic decision making, the work examines the effectiveness of three existing general approaches to conflict modelling and management, namely informal and qualitative methods; general systems analysis methods; and game theoretic approaches. Desirable criteria for a strategic conflict management framework are derived and a framework is then proposed which has three components: - Setting thefuture environment The future of the organisation is described by a network of states of nature. Resolving the Conflict Within each of the states which represent the future, the options for participants are identified and the possible outcomes and interim states identified. An analysis of the influence and power of the participants over transitions between states is carried out, which indicates likely development paths in the conflict, from which conclusions can be drawn about both the likely outcomes, and about the actions which should be taken by a company to bring about preferred outcomes. Closing the Loop Feedback of information obtained by analysis and by contact with the real world back into the two structures described above allows examination of the effect of changing perspectives and the differing beliefs of participants. The application of the framework is shown through case studies examining thejustifiability and appropriateness of each of its elements and as a whole. These case studies cover both small and large companies, a variety of business conflict cases, both live and retrospective and draw on the recorded material in international relations for examples of non- . commercial conflict. Future development paths are identified for the concept
Open Access
Outcome predictors of co-operative R & D in Europe: organisational capabilities and cultures
(Cranfield University, 2010-03) Zibell, Laurent; Allen, Peter M.; Paulre, Bernard
This research investigates organisational capabilities and cultures of both partners as potential explanatory factors of co-operative R&D projects outcomes. Contributions to theory are (1) a justification for the existence of organisational capabilities and 'world views', (2) a parsimonious typology of 'world views' and (3) a method to measure organisational capabilities. The survey covers 514 projects in the electronics industry, in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Finland. It obtains 120 full answers, each of which coupling responses from a matched pair of project managers having co-operated on the same R&D project. The survey refers to the organisation's capabilities, to those of the partner, to its 'world view', and to project outcomes. None of the traditional explanatory factors (geographic distance, difference in nationality, size or legal status, strategic compatibility) has any significant influence on any of the outcomes being studied (save one). The explanatory factors introduced by the research (organisational capabilities and 'world views') have a significant influence on almost all outcomes being considered of the co-operative R&D projects: attainment of concrete results, compliance with budget and schedule, creation and transfer of knowledge, learning (modification of capabilities). Cultural diversity, 'absorptive capacity', and teaching effects, selective according to the capability in question, are evidenced. Commonalities between partners are shown to be more important than distance. These results validate empirically organisational capabilities and 'world views' as descriptors of inter-organisational capabilities, and their operationalisation.
Open Access
Predictive performance of front-loaded experimentation strategies in pharmaceutical discovery: a Bayesian perspective
(Cranfield University, 2004) van Dyck, Walter; Allen, Peter M.
Experimentation is a significant innovation process activity and its design is fundamental to the learning and knowledge build-up process. Front-loaded experimentation is known as a strategy seeking to improve innovation process performance; by exploiting early information to spot and solve problems as upstream as possible, costly overruns in subsequent product development are avoided. Although the value of search through front-loaded experimentation in complex and novel environments is recognized, the phenomenon has not been studied in the highly relevant pharmaceutical R&D context, where typically lots of drug candidates get killed very late in the innovation process when potential problems are insufficiently anticipated upfront. In pharmaceutical research the initial problem is to discover a “drug-like” complex biological or chemical system that has the potential to affect a biological target on a disease pathway. My case study evidence found that the discovery process is managed through a front-loaded experimentation strategy. The research team gradually builds a mental model of the drug’s action in which the solution of critical design problems can be initiated at various moments in the innovation process. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive performance of frontloaded experimentation strategies in the discovery process. Because predictive performance necessitates conditional probability thinking, a Bayesian methodology is proposed and a rationale is given to develop research propositions using Monte Carlo simulation. An adaptive system paradigm, then, is the basis for designing the simulation model used for top-down theory development. My simulation results indicate that front-loaded strategies in a pharmaceutical discovery context outperform other strategies on positive predictive performance. Frontloaded strategies therefore increase the odds for compounds succeeding subsequent development testing, provided they were found positive in discovery. Also, increasing the number of parallel concept explorations in discovery influences significantly the negative predictive performance of experimentation strategies, reducing the probability of missed opportunities in development. These results are shown to be robust for varying degrees of predictability of the discovery process. The counterintuitive business implication of my research findings is that the key to further reduce spend and overruns in pharmaceutical development is to be found in discovery, where efforts to better understand drug candidates lead to higher success rates later in the innovation process.

Browsing by Author "Allen, Peter M."

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