Browsing by Author "Clewley, Natalie"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    5 year public health impacts of an urban greenway, Belfast, Northern Ireland: Causal Loop Diagram (Abstract no diagram)
    (Oxford University Press, 2023-10-24) Hunter, R.; Garcia, L.; Clewley, Natalie; Hafezi, Mehdi; Hilton, Jeremy
    Background The development of large scale urban green space infrastructure, such as a new urban greenway, provokes a cascade of changes abating a series of public health impacts, in the realms of: health, society, economy and the environment. The relationships between these factors sustain reciprocal and dynamic influence with potential to generate a virtuous cycle. However, such long-term impacts and their inter-relationships are poorly understood. Methods We aimed to co-develop a shared understanding of the public health impacts of the Connswater Community Greenway with multi-sectoral stakeholders 5 years post-implementation. Objectives were to (a) build shared understanding of the complex system influencing the public health impact of the Connswater Community Greenway, and (b) identify and explore priorities, opportunities, and actions to improve future impacts. We undertook Group Model Building workshops with people representing relevant stakeholders involved in the development and/or maintenance of the Connswater Community Greenway, and local residents living on or along the greenway. Results 23 participants were involved in the workshop included local governmental agencies, local residents, advocacy groups, private sector, and researchers. Stakeholders produced a systems map detailing the public health impacts of the Connswater Community Greenway 5 years post-implementation. Key impacts included increased in mental wellbeing, sense of community pride, increased biodiversity, increased economic investment in the local area. Participants identified a range of priority actions that, in their view, could impact and help reshape the system and influence the future impacts of the greenway. Conclusions The CLD was reflective of the various stakeholders’ experience, knowledge, perceptions, and views about the factors, and the inter-relationships between these factors, of the public health impact of the Connswater Community Greenway at 5 years post-implementation. Key messages • Systems thinking approaches can help identify the public health impacts and plausible causal pathways of green space interventions. • 5 year impacts of an urban greenway included improvements in the realms of health, wellbeing, the environment, the economy and society.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    ItemOpen Access
    C-IEDD metacognitive requisite ratings
    (Cranfield University, 2021-10-06 10:26) Smy, Victoria; Witheridge, Annamaria; Clewley, Natalie; Dodd, Lorraine
    Red/amber/green (RAG) analysis of metacognitive requisites at key decision points throughout a challenging counter-improvised explosive device disposal incident.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Eliciting expert knowledge to inform training design
    (Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), 2019-09-10) Clewley, Natalie; Dodd, Lorraine; Smy, Victoria; Witheridge, Annamaria; Louvieris, Panos
    To determine the elicitation methodologies best placed to uncover and capture the expert operator’s reflective cognitive judgements in complex and dynamic military operating environments (e.g., explosive ordinance disposal) in order to develop the specification for a reflective eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) agent to support the training of domain novices. Approach: A bounded literature review of the latest developments in expert knowledge elicitation was undertaken to determine the ’art-of-the-possible’ in respects to uncovering an expert’s cognitive judgements in complex and dynamic environments. Candidate methodologies were systematically and critically reviewed in order to identify the most promising methodologies for uncovering expert situational awareness and metacognitive evaluations in pursuit of actionable threat mitigation strategies in high-risk contexts. Research outputs are synthesized into an interview protocol for eliciting and understanding the in-situ actions and decisions of experts in high-risk, complex operating environments. Practical implications: Trainees entering high-risk operating environments can benefit from exposure to expert reflective strategies whilst learning the trade. Typical operator training focuses on technical aspects of threat mitigation but often overlooks reflective self-evaluation. The present study represents an initial step towards determining the feasibility of designing a reflective XAI agent to augment the performance of trainees entering high-risk operations. Outputs of the expert knowledge elicitation protocol documented here shall be used to refine a theoretical framework of expert operator judgement, in order to determine decision support strategies of benefit to domain novices.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    A framework for systems thinking practice
    (Cranfield University, 2022-09-15) Clewley, Natalie; Forsyth, Tim; Dodd, Lorraine; Hilton, Jeremy
    This paper provides a novel model/framework for OR practitioners to approach and engage in complex situations. Developed over many years by the Systems Thinking Practice team at Cranfield University, this framework builds upon and complements previous multi-methodology theory (Jackson, 2019; Mingers & Brocklesby, 1997) and draws from new methodological developments in philosophy of science (Blaikie & Priest, 2017). Reflective Practice lies at the heart of good systems intervention (Churchman, 1979; Dodd, 2018; Hoverstadt, 2022; Jackson, 2019). The proposed framework uses Reflective Practice as the conduit that coheres three interrelated and interdependent domains: the practitioner-academic interface; systems tools and methods; and philosophical perspectives. The intersection of these three domains highlights additional challenge areas that practitioners need to be aware of. At the intersection of Philosophy and Method is a new methodology that links the ‘whats’ and ‘hows’ (Checkland, 1999, p. 163). At the intersection of Practitioner and Method, the practitioner must balance the selection of methods in conjunction with their previous experience, skills and preference for individual tools, in such a way as to be mindful of any biases. The intersection between Practitioner and Philosophy is grounded in the lower levels of the Iceberg Model (Hall, 1976) where the practitioner should be mindful of (and potentially surface) any personal beliefs and values that may inhibit the appreciation of other perspectives. Currently, we apply this model/framework in research in Public Health, Defence and Security and Organisational Resilience; also, in teaching a new generation of systems thinking practitioners who will go on to be active members within the OR community. Going forward, our intention is to generate a set of principles to support practitioners engaging with complex situations within OR.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    A Markov multi-phase transferable belief model for cyber situational awareness
    (IEEE, 2019-02-06) Ioannou, Georgios; Louvieris, Panos; Clewley, Natalie
    eXfiltration Advanced Persistent Threats (XAPTs) increasingly account for incidents concerned with critical information exfiltration from High Valued Targets (HVTs). Existing Cyber Defence frameworks and data fusion models cannot cope with XAPTs due to a lack of provision for multi-phase attacks characterized by uncertainty and conflicting information. The Markov Multi-phase Transferable Belief Model (MM-TBM) extends the Transferable Belief Model to address the multi-phase nature of cyber-attacks and to obtain previously indeterminable Cyber SA. As a data fusion technique, MM-TBM constitutes a novel approach for performing hypothesis assessment and evidence combination across phases, by means of a new combination rule, called the Multi-phase Combination Rule with conflict Reset (MCR 2 ). The impact of MM-TBM as a Cyber Situational Awareness capability and its implications as a multi-phase data fusion theory have been empirically validated through a series of scenario-based Cyber SA experiments for detecting, tracking, and predicting XAPTs.