Browsing by Author "Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa"

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    Future foods: Morphological scenarios to explore changes in the UK food system with implications for food safety across the food chain
    (Elsevier, 2023-03-20) Garnett, Kenisha; Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Medina-Vayá, Ángel; Magan, Naresh; Leinster, Paul; Terry, Leon A.
    Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic.
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    Systemic modelling applied to studying outbreaks of exotic animal diseases
    (Cranfield University, 2011-11) Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Longhurst, Philip; Pollard, Simon
    Context and rationale – This work originates from policy priorities established within Defra to manage exotic animal diseases (EAD); specifically to understand the causes of low probability events, and to establish contingencies to manage outbreak incidents. Outbreaks of exotic animal diseases, e.g. FMD, CSF and HPAI, can cause economic and social impacts of catastrophic proportions. The UK’s government develops and implements policies and controls to prevent EAD and thus minimise these impacts. Control policies to achieve this are designed to address the vulnerabilities within the control systems. However, data are limited for both the introduction of an EAD as well as its resurgence following the disposal of infected carcasses, i.e. the pre-outbreak and post-outbreak phases of an EAD event. These lack of data compromises the development of policy interventions to improve protection. To overcome these data limitations, predictive models are used to predict system vulnerabilities. Cont/d.
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    A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.
    (Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2013-08-31T00:00:00Z) Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Snary, E. L.; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Philip J.
    Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.