Browsing by Author "Garnett, Kenisha"
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Item Open Access AGFORWARD Project Final Report(Cranfield University, 2018-02-28) Burgess, Paul; den Herder, M.; Dupraz, C.; Garnett, Kenisha; Giannitsopoulos, Michail; Graves, Anil; Hermansen, J. E.; Kanzler, M.; Liagre, F.; Mirck, J.; Moreno, G.; Mosquera-Losada, M. R.; Palma, João H. N.; Pantera, A.; Plieninger, T.Executive summary: The AGFORWARD project (Grant Agreement N° 613520) had the overall goal to promote agroforestry practices in Europe that will advance sustainable rural development. It had four objectives (described below) which address 1) the context and extent of agroforestry in Europe, 2) identifying, developing and field-testing agroforestry innovations through participatory networks, 3) evaluating innovative designs and practices at field-, farm-, and landscape-scales, and promoting agroforestry in Europe through policy development and dissemination. Agroforestry is defined as the practice of deliberately integrating woody vegetation (trees or shrubs) with crop and/or animal systems to benefit from the resulting ecological and economic interactions. Context: European agroforestry has been estimated to cover 10.6 Mha (using a literature review) and 15.4 Mha using the pan-European LUCAS dataset (i.e. 8.8% of the utilised agricultural area). Livestock agroforestry (15.1 Mha) is, by far, the dominant type of agroforestry. The LUCAS analysis provides a uniform method to compare agroforestry areas between countries and over time. Identify, develop and field-test agroforestry innovations: 40 stakeholder groups (involving about 820 stakeholders across 13 European countries) developed and field-tested agroforestry innovations which have been reported in 40 “lesson learnt” reports, and in a user-friendly format in 46 “Agroforestry innovation leaflets”. The innovations for agroforestry systems of high nature and cultural value included cheaper methods of tree protection and guidance for establishing legumes in wood pastures. Innovations for agroforestry with timber plantations, olive groves and apple orchards include the use of medicinal plants and reduction of mowing costs. Innovations for integrating trees on arable farms included assessments of yield benefits by providing wind protection. Innovations for livestock farms included using trees to enhance animal welfare, shade protection, and as a source of fodder. Peer-reviewed journal papers and conference presentations on these and other related topics were developed. Evaluation of agroforestry designs and practices at field- and landscape-scale: a range of publicly available field-scale analysis tools are available on the AGFORWARD website. These include the “CliPick” climate database, and web-applications of the Farm-SAFE and Hi-sAFe model. The results of field- and landscape-scale analysis, written up as peer-reviewed papers, highlight the benefits of agroforestry (relative to agriculture) for biodiversity enhancement and providing regulating ecosystem services, such as for climate and water regulation and purification. Policy development and dissemination: detailed reviews of existing policy and recommendations for future European agroforestry policy have been produced. The support provided is far wider than the single specified agroforestry measures. The recommendations included the collation of existing measures, and that agroforestry systems should not forfeit Pillar I payments. Opportunities for farmlevel and landscape-level measures were also identified. The project results can be found on the project website (www.agforward.eu), a Facebook account (www.facebook.com/AgforwardProject), a Twitter account (https://twitter.com/AGFORWARD_EU), and a quarterly electronic newsletter (http://www.agforward.eu/index.php/en/newsletters-1514.html). The number of national associations in Europe was extended to twelve, and a web-based training resource on agroforestry (http://train.agforward.eu/language/en/agforall/) created. AGFORWARD also supported the Third European Agroforestry Conference in Montpellier in 2016 attracting 287 delegates from 26 countries including many farmers. We also initiated another 21 national conferences or conference sessions on agroforestry, made about 240 oral presentations, 61 poster presentations, produced about 50 news articles, and supported about 87 workshop, training or field-visit activities (in addition to the stakeholder groups).Item Open Access AGFORWARD Third Periodic Report: July 2016 to December 2017(Cranfield University, 2018-03-01) Burgess, Paul; den Herder, M.; Dupraz, C.; Garnett, Kenisha; Giannitsopoulos, Michail; Graves, Anil; Hermansen, J. E.; Kanzler, M.; Liagre, F.; Moreno, G.; Mosquera-Losada, M. R.; Palma, João H. N.; Pantera, A.; Plieninger, T.Project context The European Union has targets to improve the competitiveness of European agriculture and forestry, whilst improving the environment and the quality of rural life. At the same time there is a need to improve our resilience to climate change and to enhance biodiversity. During the twentieth century, large productivity advances were made by managing agriculture and forestry as separate practices, but often at a high environmental cost. In order to address landscape-scale issues such as biodiversity and water quality, we argue that farmers and society will benefit from considering landuse as a continuum including both agriculture and trees, and that there are significant opportunities for European farmers and society to benefit from a closer integration of trees with agriculture. Agroforestry is the practice of deliberately integrating woody vegetation (trees or shrubs) with crop and/or animal systems to benefit from the resulting ecological and economic interactions.Item Open Access Assessing the impact of voluntary certification schemes on future sustainable coffee production(MDPI, 2024-07-03) Jones, Katharine; Njeru, Ezekiel Mugendi; Garnett, Kenisha; Girkin, Nicholas; This research was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council (NE/X001687/1 and NE/X001679/1).; Natural Environmental Research CouncilCoffee production faces major sustainability issues and consumers increasingly look to choose certified coffee as awareness grows. While consumers’ understanding of sustainability issues is limited, independent voluntary certification schemes such as Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, and certified organic—three high-profile schemes—can play a role in future-proofing coffee production through standard-setting. These schemes can also inform consumers about sustainability issues from economic, environmental, and social perspectives, thus driving up demand for sustainably grown coffee, and supporting an enabling environment for farmers and coffee-producing countries to improve the status quo. Sustainably grown coffee ensures that farmers sustain production while protecting the environment and the income that farmers rely on to maintain their livelihood. Based on a thematic analysis and synthesis of previous studies, this paper examines the social, economic, and environmental effects of voluntary certification schemes for coffee production. It evaluates the current state of coffee production and explores how certification schemes can be effective in encouraging more sustainable practices among producers. Three major voluntary certification schemes are evaluated to identify the impacts on producers, including key barriers and enablers to comply with sustainability standards and to determine how fit-for-purpose certification schemes are in assuring future sustainable coffee production.Item Open Access A conceptual framework for negotiating public involvement in municipal waste management decision-making in the UK(Elsevier, 2017-04-13) Garnett, Kenisha; Cooper, Tim; Longhurst, Philip J.; Jude, Simon; Tyrrel, SeanThe technical expertise that politicians relied on in the past to produce cost-effective and environmentally sound solutions no longer provides sufficient justification to approve waste facilities. Local authorities need to find more effective ways to involve stakeholders and communities in decision-making since public acceptance of municipal waste facilities is integral to delivering effective waste strategies. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored attitudes towards greater levels of public involvement in UK waste management decision-making. The study addressed questions of perception, interests, the decision context, the means of engagement and the necessary resources and capacity for adopting a participatory decision process. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the research produced an empirical framework for negotiating the mode and level of public involvement in waste management decision-making. The framework captures and builds on theories of public involvement and the experiences of practitioners, and offers guidance for integrating analysis and deliberation with public groups in different waste management decision contexts. Principles in the framework operate on the premise that the decision about ‘more’ and ‘better’ forms of public involvement can be negotiated, based on the nature of the waste problem and wider social context of decision-making. The collection of opinions from the wide range of stakeholders involved in the study has produced new insights for the design of public engagement processes that are context-dependent and ‘fit-for-purpose’; these suggest a need for greater inclusivity in the case of contentious technologies and high levels of uncertainty regarding decision outcomes.Item Open Access The contribution of natural burials to soil ecosystem services: review and emergent research questions(Elsevier, 2023-11-22) Pawlett, Mark; Girkin, Nicholas T.; Deeks, Lynda K.; Evans, Daniel L.; Sakrabani, Ruben; Masters, Peter; Garnett, Kenisha; Marquez-Grant, NicholasThe modern funeral industry faces many environmental risks and challenges, such as the use of sustainable materials for coffins, the release of potentially damaging materials and organisms to the soil and groundwater, and reduced space available for cemeteries. “Natural burial” proposes an alternative and more sustainable funeral practice, omitting the use of preservatives that inhibit body decomposition, thus proposing to reduce environmental degradation and benefit soil ecosystem services. This study conducted a literature review to identify proposed risks and benefits of “natural” compared to “traditional” burial practices, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes further research questions. The approach was multidisciplinary, including literature from soil, environmental, forensic, and archaeological sciences, and the Humanities. Results identified that here are some clear environmental benefits to natural burial, such as habitat creation and aboveground biodiversity. However, there is a substantial deficit of research that compares the unseen risks and benefits of natural burial practice. Multiple potential risk factors include: (i) groundwater contaminated with biochemical products of decomposition, pathogens, and pharmaceutical products, (ii) atmospheric emissions, including greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). There is also a deficit of information related to the release of cadaver decomposition products to soil ecological processes. More detailed scientific research is required to identify the risks and benefits of funeral options, thus develop fit for purpose regulations and legislation and to describe the cultural incentives for natural burial. This paper identifies key areas of research required to understand and mitigate the potential environmental and cultural implications of human burial practices.Item Open Access Effective dialogue: Enhanced public engagement as a legitimising tool for municipal waste management decision-making(Elsevier, 2014-09-12) Garnett, Kenisha; Cooper, TimThe complexity of municipal waste management decision-making has increased in recent years, accompanied by growing scrutiny from stakeholders, including local communities. This complexity reflects a socio-technical framing of the risks and social impacts associated with selecting technologies and sites for waste treatment and disposal facilities. Consequently there is growing pressure on local authorities for stakeholders (including communities) to be given an early opportunity to shape local waste policy in order to encourage swift planning, development and acceptance of the technologies needed to meet statutory targets to divert waste from landfill. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored the use of analytical-deliberative processes as a legitimising tool for waste management decision-making. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the study revealed a need to clarify the context for deliberation and the conditions in which public values are integrated into technical analysis of waste management options. The findings suggest that the nature and complexity of waste issues, the local culture and the potential for controversy each requires careful consideration within analytical-deliberative processes to enable learning and build trust among participants in waste decision-making processes.Item Open Access Emerging risks identification on food and feed - EFSA(Wiley, 2018-07-26) EFSA; Donohoe, Terry; Garnett, Kenisha; Lansink, Alfons Oude; Afonso, Ana; Noteborn, HubertThe European Food Safety Authority's has established procedures for the identification of emerging risk in food and feed. The main objectives are to: (i) to carry out activities aiming at identifying, assessing and disseminating information on emerging issues and ensure coordination with relevant networks and international organisations; (ii) promote the identification of data sources and data collection and /or data generation in prioritised emerging issues; and the (iii) evaluate of the collected information and identify of emerging risks. The objective(s) of the Standing Working Group on Emerging Risks (SWG‐ER) is to collaborate with EFSA on the emerging risks identification (ERI) procedure and provide strategic direction for EFSA work building on past and ongoing projects related to EFSA ERI procedure. The SWG‐ER considered the ERI methodologies in place and results obtained by EFSA. It was concluded that a systematic approach to the identification of emerging issues based on experts’ networks is the major strength of the procedure but at present, it is mainly focused on single issues, over short to medium time horizons, no consistent weighting or ranking is applied and clear governance of emerging risks with follow‐up actions is missing. The analysis highlighted weaknesses with respect to data collection, analysis and integration. No methodology is in place to estimate the value of the procedure outputs in terms of avoided risk and there is urgent need for a communication strategy that addresses the lack of data and knowledge uncertainty and addresses risk perception issues. Recommendations were given in three areas: (i) Further develop a food system‐based approach including the integration of social sciences to improve understanding of interactions and dynamics between actors and drivers and the development of horizon scanning protocols; (ii) Improve data processing pipelines to prepare big data analytics, implement a data validation system and develop data sharing agreements to explore mutual benefits; and (iii) Revise the EFSA procedure for emerging risk identification to increase transparency and improve communication.Item Open Access Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities(Springer, 2021-05-25) Luís, Ana; Garnett, Kenisha; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Jude, Simon; Leinster, PaulRisks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.Item Open Access Future foods: Morphological scenarios to explore changes in the UK food system with implications for food safety across the food chain(Elsevier, 2023-03-20) Garnett, Kenisha; Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Medina-Vayá, Ángel; Magan, Naresh; Leinster, Paul; Terry, Leon A.Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic.Item Open Access How Governance Regimes Shape the Implementation of Water Reuse Schemes(MDPI, 2016-12-20) Frijns, Jos; Smith, Heather M.; Brouwer, Stijn; Garnett, Kenisha; Elelman, Richard; Jeffrey, PaulThe governance dimensions of water reuse scheme development and operation, such as policies and regulatory frameworks, and public involvement and stakeholder collaboration, can serve to both facilitate and constrain wider adoption of water reuse practices. This paper explores the significance and underlying structure of the key governance challenges facing the water reuse sector in Europe. It presents empirical evidence from interviews and focus group sessions conducted at four water reuse schemes: an indirect potable reuse scheme at Torreele (Belgium), the urban reuse of treated municipal wastewater at the London Olympic Park (United Kingdom) and at Sabadell (Spain), and the reuse of agro-industrial effluent for irrigation at Capitanata (Italy). The findings underscore the importance of clarity in policy arrangements around water reuse, as well as of the financial competitiveness of reuse projects compared to alternative water supply options. Operators of water reuse schemes expressed a preference for water quality standards, which focus on appropriateness for use rather than over-emphasise the waters’ origin so that unnecessary treatment and costs can be avoided. Positive public support was widely acknowledged as an important factor in the success or failure of water reuse schemes. We conclude that constructive institutional relationships underpin many of the challenges faced by reuse scheme operators and that greater emphasis should be given to building confidence and gaining trust in water service providers through early identification of how governance regimes shape the viability of new schemesItem Open Access Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions(Elsevier, 2016-04-17) Garnett, Kenisha; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Prpich, George; Rathe, A. A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.Item Open Access Multi-case review of the application of the precautionary principle in European Union Law and Case Law(Wiley, 2016-05-18) Garnett, Kenisha; Parsons, David J.The precautionary principle was formulated to provide a basis for political action to protect the environment from potentially severe or irreversible harm in circumstances of scientific uncertainty that prevent a full risk or cost-benefit analysis. It underpins environmental law in the European Union and has been extended to include public health and consumer safety. The aim of this study was to examine how the precautionary principle has been interpreted and subsequently applied in practice, whether these applications were consistent, and whether they followed the guidance from the Commission. A review of the literature was used to develop a framework for analysis, based on three attributes: severity of potential harm, standard of evidence (or degree of uncertainty), and nature of the regulatory action. This was used to examine 15 pieces of legislation or judicial decisions. The decision whether or not to apply the precautionary principle appears to be poorly defined, with ambiguities inherent in determining what level of uncertainty and significance of hazard justifies invoking it. The cases reviewed suggest that the Commission's guidance was not followed consistently in forming legislation, although judicial decisions tended to be more consistent and to follow the guidance by requiring plausible evidence of potential hazard in order to invoke precaution.Item Open Access Plausible future scenarios for the UK food and feed system - 2015 and 2030. Report for the UK Food Standards Agency(Cranfield University, Institute for Environment, Health, Risk and Futures (IEHRF), 2014-06) Garnett, Kenisha; Delgado, João; Lickorish, Fiona; Medina-Vayá, Ángel; Magan, Naresh; Shaw, Hayley; Rathé, Anna; Chatterton, Julia; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon; Terry, Leon AThe report describes the key drivers of the wider environment which informed the development of the scenarios. There are case studies of three representative food types, which illustrate how the scenarios may be used to explore triggers for change in food production and supply in the next 20 years, and what the emerging food safety implications might be under each scenario.Item Open Access Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention(Elsevier, 2017-04-07) Dagonneau, J.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Prpich, George; Garnett, Kenisha; Black, Edgar; Pollard, Simon J. T.Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on ‘expert’- and ‘literature-based’ analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output.Item Open Access A study of obesity drivers in Mexico using alternative future scenarios to define policy,(Cranfield University, 2022-02) Anguiano Arreola, Paulina; Hess, Tim M.; Garnett, KenishaIn the last four decades, Mexico has experienced a rise in the prevalence of obesity among urban households, increasing the risks of comorbidities and premature deaths. This PhD thesis examines what is driving obesity in urban Mexican households to develop a systemic understanding of consumers’ eating choices and health behaviours and how these drivers interact and change eating choices and dietary behaviours under alternative future scenarios. This analysis leads to a discussion about potential policy implications to encourage healthier eating choices and improve dietary patterns. The largely qualitative research comprised: 1. A broad literature review to identify drivers of obesity, using a Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal and Ethical (STEEPLE) framework to identify a broader range of external drivers influencing individuals’ eating choices in Mexico. 2. A theoretical framework that combines the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TBP) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) to encompass the impact of external and internal factors that influence eating choices. 3. A survey to understand individuals’ eating behaviours and the impact on nutrition from a selected sample of the population in Mexico. 4. The development of scenarios to deliver plausible futures in the context of consumer’s behaviour, eating choices and impact on obesity in Mexico. The results showed the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration within the system that can breach the pre-existing gaps between the education, health, and food production sectors. In addition, the findings confirmed the influence of eating choices associated with food insecurity, driven in part by social inequalities and political and legal agreements, which influence internal behaviours and impact health. In addition, scenario development results suggested the need to support community/regional food production projects, re-evaluation of current initiatives, integration of multiple sectors to enhance collaborations, higher transparency in the developed initiatives. The measures can a) increase economic, education, and employment opportunities; b) improve sociodemographic equality; c) improve health literacy; and d) promote food security. Main contribution of this research was a more holistic and improved perspective of consumers’ eating choices and health behaviours through the visualisation of a systemic understanding, derived from selected methods of literature, theoretical framework, consumer survey and scenarios to set the connections between external and internal drivers.Item Open Access Towards net zero in agriculture: future challenges and opportunities for arable, livestock and protected cropping systems in the UK(SAGE, 2023-06-12) Sakrabani, Ruben; Garnett, Kenisha; Knox, Jerry W.; Rickson, R. Jane; Pawlett, Mark; Falagán Sama, Natalia; Girkin, Nicholas T.; Cain, Michelle; Alamar, M Carmen; Burgess, Paul; Harris, Jim A.; Patchigolla, Kumar; Sandars, Daniel; Graves, Anil; Hannam, Jacqueline A.; Simmons, RobertThe agricultural sector faces multiple challenges linked to increased climate uncertainty, causing severe shocks including increased frequency of extreme weather events, new pest and disease risks, soil degradation, and pre and postharvest food losses. This situation is further exacerbated by geopolitical instability and volatility in energy prices impacting on fertiliser supplies and production costs. Net zero strategies are vital to achieve both food security and address negative environmental impacts. This perspective paper reviews and assesses the most viable options (actions) to achieve net zero with a focus on the arable/livestock and protected cropping sectors in the UK. The methodology was based on a synthesis of relevant literature, coupled with expert opinions using the holistic PESTLE (Political, Environmental, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental) approach to categorise actions, leading to formulation of a roadmap to achieve net zero. The PESTLE analysis indicated that there are technically and economically viable actions available which need to be prioritised depending on the ease of their implementation within the two crop sectors investigated. These actions include (i) policy changes that are better aligned to net zero; (ii) circular economy approaches; (iii) connectivity and accessibility of information; (iv) increased resilience to shocks; (v) changing diets, nutrition and lifestyles; (vi) target setting and attainment; and (vii) farm economics and livelihoods. The outputs can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to inform policy and drive meaningful changes in global food and environmental security.Item Open Access Using horizon scanning to build policy resilience: case of waste crime(Wiley, 2024-04) Garnett, Kenisha; Wilson, Alister; Wilkinson, EdithWaste crime is a pressing concern for the waste and resource industry as it is undermining investment, growth and jobs within the industry and threatening the natural environment. However, there is little knowledge of the scale of the problem, the types of criminality and motivations involved, and the precise nature of crime. Environmental regulators are building foresight capabilities to better understand the effect of current and future changes in markets, in technology and in the legislative environment on waste crime and associated behaviours. At the heart of this paper is the question: how can horizon scanning be adopted by environmental regulators to shape decision processes and build resilience to waste crime? We report our efforts to build a toolkit and guidance for conducting horizon scanning, aimed at supporting environmental regulators, investigators and intelligence analysts to build an understanding of—and interpretation of the consequences of—behavioural, market, technological and pollution trends in the waste sector. A review of the academic and grey literature provided insights to organisational approaches and design principles for public sector horizon scanning. Outputs guided discussion at a stakeholder workshop with waste regulators, criminal intelligence and industry professionals to explore institutional challenges and to agree broad design principles for a horizon scanning process. The toolkit supports environmental regulators in applying horizon scanning to policy and wider operational and delivery‐focused challenges; learning how to: (1) spot weak signals and emerging trends quickly, (2) examine the evidence around potential threats and opportunities for the future, and (3) take action on strategically important issues to minimise the impact of crime on the environment, society and business. The paper sets out further research needed to integrate horizon scanning with data analytics (e.g., predictive and hotspot analyses) to challenge assumptions about the patterns of change, based largely on historical trends, and to better manage these so there is greater adaptability to current and future trends.