Browsing by Author "Harris, Neil R. P."
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Item Open Access Advances and challenges of life cycle assessment (LCA) of greenhouse gas removal technologies to fight climate changes(Elsevier, 2019-10-14) Goglio, Pietro; Williams, Adrian G.; Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; Harris, Neil R. P.; Williamson, Phillip C.; Huisingh, Donald; Zhang, Zhe; Tavoni, MassimoSeveral greenhouse gas removal technologies (GGRTs), also called negative emissions technologies (NET) have been proposed to help meet the Paris Climate Agreement targets. However, there are many uncertainties in the estimation of their effective greenhouse gas (GHG) removal potentials, caused by their different levels of technological development. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been proposed as one effective methodology to holistically assess the potential of different GGRT removal approaches but no common framework is currently available for benchmarking and policy development. In this article, challenges for LCA are reviewed and discussed together with some alternative approaches for assessment of GGRTs. In particular, GGRTs pose challenges with regards to the functional unit, the system boundary of the LCA assessment, and the timing of emissions. The need to account within LCA of GGRTs for broader implications which involve environmental impacts, economic, social and political drivers is highlighted. A set of recommendations for LCA of GGRTs are proposed for a better assessment of the GGRTs and better accounting of their carbon removal potentials to meet the targets established within the Paris Agreement.Item Open Access Development of a low-maintenance measurement approach to continuously estimate methane emissions: a case study(Elsevier, 2016-12-18) Riddick, Stuart N.; Hancock, B. R.; Robinson, Andrew D.; Connors, Sarah; Davies, S.; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Harris, Neil R. P.The chemical breakdown of organic matter in landfills represents a significant source of methane gas (CH4). Current estimates suggest that landfills are responsible for between 3% and 19% of global anthropogenic emissions. The net CH4 emissions resulting from biogeochemical processes and their modulation by microbes in landfills are poorly constrained by imprecise knowledge of environmental constraints. The uncertainty in absolute CH4 emissions from landfills is therefore considerable. This study investigates a new method to estimate the temporal variability of CH4 emissions using meteorological and CH4 concentration measurements downwind of a landfill site in Suffolk, UK from July to September 2014, taking advantage of the statistics that such a measurement approach offers versus shorter-term, but more complex and instantaneously accurate, flux snapshots. Methane emissions were calculated from CH4 concentrations measured 700 m from the perimeter of the landfill with observed concentrations ranging from background to 46.4 ppm. Using an atmospheric dispersion model, we estimate a mean emission flux of 709 μg m−2 s−1 over this period, with a maximum value of 6.21 mg m−2 s−1, reflecting the wide natural variability in biogeochemical and other environmental controls on net site emission. The emissions calculated suggest that meteorological conditions have an influence on the magnitude of CH4 emissions. We also investigate the factors responsible for the large variability observed in the estimated CH4 emissions, and suggest that the largest component arises from uncertainty in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions within the landfill area. The results determined using the low-maintenance approach discussed in this paper suggest that a network of cheaper, less precise CH4 sensors could be used to measure a continuous CH4 emission time series from a landfill site, something that is not practical using far-field approaches such as tracer release methods. Even though there are limitations to the approach described here, this easy, low-maintenance, low-cost method could be used by landfill operators to estimate time-averaged CH4 emissions and their impact downwind by simultaneously monitoring plume advection and CH4 concentrations.Item Open Access Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model(2017-11-20) Keeble, James; Bednarz, Ewa M.; Banerjee, Antara; Abraham, N. Luke; Harris, Neil R. P.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Pyle, John A.Chemical and dynamical drivers of trends in tropical total-column ozone (TCO3) for the recent past and future periods are explored using the UM-UKCA (Unified Model HadGEM3-A (Hewitt et al., 2011) coupled with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol scheme) chemistry–climate model. A transient 1960–2100 simulation is analysed which follows the representative concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0) emissions scenario for the future. Tropical averaged (10° S–10° N) TCO3 values decrease from the 1970s, reach a minimum around 2000 and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the ozone column is subdivided into three partial columns (PCO3) that cover the upper stratosphere (PCO3US), lower stratosphere (PCO3LS) and troposphere (PCO3T), significant differences in the temporal behaviour of the partial columns are seen. Modelled PCO3T values under the RCP6.0 emissions scenario increase from 1960 to 2000 before remaining approximately constant throughout the 21st century. PCO3LS values decrease rapidly from 1960 to 2000 and remain constant from 2000 to 2050, before gradually decreasing further from 2050 to 2100 and never returning to their 1980s values. In contrast, PCO3US values decrease from 1960 to 2000, before increasing rapidly throughout the 21st century and returning to 1980s values by ∼ 2020, and reach significantly higher values by 2100. Using a series of idealised UM-UKCA time-slice simulations with concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and halogenated ODS species set to either year 2000 or 2100 levels, we examine the main processes that drive the PCO3 responses in the three regions and assess how these processes change under different emission scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model to describe the future evolution of tropical stratospheric column ozone values based on terms representing time-dependent abundances of GHG and halogenated ODS.Item Open Access Enhanced Volatile Organic Compounds emissions and organic aerosol mass increase the oligomer content of atmospheric aerosols(Nature, 2016-10-13) Kourtchev, Ivan; Giorio, Chiara; Manninen, Antti; Wilson, Eoin; Mahon, Brendan; Aalto, Juho; Kajos, Maija; Venables, Dean; Ruuskanen, Taina; Levula, Janne; Loponen, Matti; Connors, Sarah; Harris, Neil R. P.; Zhao, Defeng; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Mentel, Thomas; Rudich, Yinon; Hallquist, Mattias; Doussin, Jean-Francois; Maenhaut, Willy; Back, Jaana; Petaja, Tuukka; Wenger, John; Kulmala, Markku; Kalberer, MarkusSecondary organic aerosol (SOA) accounts for a dominant fraction of the submicron atmospheric particle mass, but knowledge of the formation, composition and climate effects of SOA is incomplete and limits our understanding of overall aerosol effects in the atmosphere. Organic oligomers were discovered as dominant components in SOA over a decade ago in laboratory experiments and have since been proposed to play a dominant role in many aerosol processes. However, it remains unclear whether oligomers are relevant under ambient atmospheric conditions because they are often not clearly observed in field samples. Here we resolve this long-standing discrepancy by showing that elevated SOA mass is one of the key drivers of oligomer formation in the ambient atmosphere and laboratory experiments. We show for the first time that a specific organic compound class in aerosols, oligomers, is strongly correlated with cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of SOA particles. These findings might have important implications for future climate scenarios where increased temperatures cause higher biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, which in turn lead to higher SOA mass formation and significant changes in SOA composition. Such processes would need to be considered in climate models for a realistic representation of future aerosol-climate-biosphere feedbacks.Item Open Access Isoprene hotspots at the Western Coast of Antarctic Peninsula during MASEC′16(Elsevier, 2018-12-28) Nadzir, M. S. M.; Cain, Michelle; Robinson, A. D.; Bolas, C.; Harris, Neil R. P.; Parnikoza, I.; Salimun, E.; Mustafa, E. M.; Alhasa, K. M.; Zainuddin, M. H. M.; Ghee, O. C.; Morris, K.; Khan, M. F.; Latif, M. T.; Wallis, B. M.; Cheah, W.; Zainudin, S. K.; Yusop, N.; Ahmad, M. R; Hussin, W. M. R. W.; Salleh, S. M.; Hamid, H. H. A.; Lai, G. T.; Uning, R.; Bakar, M. A. A.; Ariff, N. M.; Tuah, Z.; Wahab, M. I. A.; Foong, S. Y.; Samah, Azizan Abu; Chenoli, S. N.; Wan Johari, W. L.; Zain, C. R. C. M.; Rahman, N. A.; Rosenstiel, T. N.; Yusof, A. H.; Sabuti, A. A.; Alias, S. A.; Noor, A. Y. M.Isoprene (C5H8) plays an important role in the formation of surface ozone (O3) and the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) which contributed to the climate change. This study aims to determine hourly distribution of tropospheric isoprene over the Western Coast of Antarctic Peninsula (WCAP) during the Malaysian Antarctic Scientific Expedition Cruise 2016 (MASEC′16). In-situ measurements of isoprene were taken using a custom-built gas chromatography with photoionization detector, known as iDirac. Biological parameters such as chlorophyll a (chl-a) and particulate organic carbon (POC) were compared to the in-situ isoprene measurements. Significant positive correlation was observed between isoprene and POC concentrations (r2 = 0.67, p < 0.001), but not between isoprene and chl-a. The hotspots of isoprene over maritime Antarctic were then were investigated using NAME dispersion model reanalysis. Measurements showed that isoprene mixing ratio were the highest over region of King George Island, Deception Island and Booth Island with values of ∼5.0, ∼0.9 and ∼5.2 ppb, respectively. Backward trajectory analysis showed that air masses may have lifted the isoprene emitted by marine algae. We believe our findings provide valuable data set of isoprene estimation over the under sampled WCAP.Item Open Access A measurement-based verification framework for UK greenhouse gas emissions: an overview of the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) project(Elsevier, 2018-08-17) Palmer, Paul I.; O'Doherty, Simon; Allen, Grant; Bower, Keith; Bösch, Hartmut; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Connors, Sarah; Dhomse, Sandip; Feng, Liang; Finch, Douglas P.; Gallagher, Martin W.; Gloor, Emanuel; Gonzi, Siegfried; Harris, Neil R. P.; Helfter, Carole; Humpage, Neil; Kerridge, Brian; Knappett, Diane; Jones, Roderic L.; Le Breton, Michael; Lunt, Mark F.; Manning, Alistair J.; Matthiesen, Stephan; Muller, Jennifer B. A.; Mullinger, Neil; Nemitz, Eiko; O'Shea, Sebastian; Parker, Robert J.; Percival, Carl J.; Pitt, Joseph; Riddick, Stuart N.; Rigby, Matthew; Sembhi, Harjinder; Siddans, Richard; Skelton, Robert L.; Smith, Paul; Sonderfeld, Hannah; Stanley, Kieran; Stavert, Ann R.; Wenger, Angelina; White, Emily; Wilson, Christopher; Young, DickonWe describe the motivation, design, and execution of the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) project. The overarching scientific objective of GAUGE was to use atmospheric data to estimate the magnitude, distribution, and uncertainty of the UK greenhouse gas (GHG, defined here as CO2, CH4, and N2O) budget, 2013–2015. To address this objective, we established a multi-year and interlinked measurement and data analysis programme, building on an established tall-tower GHG measurement network. The calibrated measurement network comprises ground-based, airborne, ship-borne, balloon-borne, and space-borne GHG sensors. Our choice of measurement technologies and measurement locations reflects the heterogeneity of UK GHG sources, which range from small point sources such as landfills to large, diffuse sources such as agriculture. Atmospheric mole fraction data collected at the tall towers and on the ships provide information on sub-continental fluxes, representing the backbone to the GAUGE network. Additional spatial and temporal details of GHG fluxes over East Anglia were inferred from data collected by a regional network. Data collected during aircraft flights were used to study the transport of GHGs on local and regional scales. We purposely integrated new sensor and platform technologies into the GAUGE network, allowing us to lay the foundations of a strengthened UK capability to verify national GHG emissions beyond the project lifetime. For example, current satellites provide sparse and seasonally uneven sampling over the UK mainly because of its geographical size and cloud cover. This situation will improve with new and future satellite instruments, e.g. measurements of CH4 from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard Sentinel-5P. We use global, nested, and regional atmospheric transport models and inverse methods to infer geographically resolved CO2 and CH4 fluxes. This multi-model approach allows us to study model spread in a posteriori flux estimates. These models are used to determine the relative importance of different measurements to infer the UK GHG budget. Attributing observed GHG variations to specific sources is a major challenge. Within a UK-wide spatial context we used two approaches: (1) Δ14CO2 and other relevant isotopologues (e.g. δ13CCH4) from collected air samples to quantify the contribution from fossil fuel combustion and other sources, and (2) geographical separation of individual sources, e.g. agriculture, using a high-density measurement network. Neither of these represents a definitive approach, but they will provide invaluable information about GHG source attribution when they are adopted as part of a more comprehensive, long-term national GHG measurement programme. We also conducted a number of case studies, including an instrumented landfill experiment that provided a test bed for new technologies and flux estimation methods. We anticipate that results from the GAUGE project will help inform other countries on how to use atmospheric data to quantify their nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement.Item Open Access Modelling the effect of the 2018 summer heatwave and drought on isoprene emissions in a UK woodland(Wiley, 2019-12-13) Otu‐Larbi, Frederick; Bolas, Conor G.; Ferracci, Valerio; Staniaszek, Zosia; Jones, Roderic L.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Harris, Neil R. P.; Wild, Oliver; Ashworth, KirstiProjected future climatic extremes such as heatwaves and droughts are expected to have major impacts on emissions and concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds (bVOCs) with potential implications for air quality, climate and human health. While the effects of changing temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on the synthesis and emission of isoprene, the most abundant of these bVOCs, are well known, the role of other environmental factors such as soil moisture stress are not fully understood and are therefore poorly represented in land surface models. As part of the Wytham Isoprene iDirac Oak Tree Measurements campaign, continuous measurements of isoprene mixing ratio were made throughout the summer of 2018 in Wytham Woods, a mixed deciduous woodland in southern England. During this time, the United Kingdom experienced a prolonged heatwave and drought, and isoprene mixing ratios were observed to increase by more than 400% at Wytham Woods under these conditions. We applied the state‐of‐the‐art FORest Canopy‐Atmosphere Transfer canopy exchange model to investigate the processes leading to these elevated concentrations. We found that although current isoprene emissions algorithms reproduced observed mixing ratios in the canopy before and after the heatwave, the model underestimated observations by ~40% during the heatwave–drought period implying that models may substantially underestimate the release of isoprene to the atmosphere in future cases of mild or moderate drought. Stress‐induced emissions of isoprene based on leaf temperature and soil water content (SWC) were incorporated into current emissions algorithms leading to significant improvements in model output. A combination of SWC, leaf temperature and rewetting emission bursts provided the best model‐measurement fit with a 50% improvement compared to the baseline model. Our results highlight the need for more long‐term ecosystem‐scale observations to enable improved model representation of atmosphere–biosphere interactions in a changing global climate.Item Open Access A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS): linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine(European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications, 2016-07-26) Hossaini, R.; Patra, P. K.; Leeson, A. A.; Krysztofiak, G.; Abraham, N. Luke; Andrews, S. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Aschmann, J.; Atlas, E. L.; Belikov, D. A.; Bonisch, H.; Carpenter, L. J.; Dhomse, S.; Dorf, M.; Engel, A.; Feng, W.; Fuhlbrugge, S.; Griffiths, P. T.; Harris, Neil R. P.; Hommel, R.; Keber, T.; Kruger, K.; Lennartz, S. T.; Maksyutov, S.; Mantle, H.; Mills, G. P.; Miller, B.; Montzka, S. A.; Moore, F.; Navarro, M. A.; Oram, David E.; Pfeilsticker, K.; Pyle, J. A.; Quack, B.; Robinson, A. D.; Saikawa, E.; Saiz-Lopez, A.; Sala, S.; Sinnhuber, B.-M.; Taguchi, S.; Tegtmeier, S.; Lidster, Richard T.; Wilson, C.; Ziska, F.The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry– climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransComVSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA’s long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model– measurement correlation (r ≥ 0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5) ppt, ∼ 57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.Item Open Access Overview of the Antarctic circumnavigation expedition: study of preindustrial-like aerosols and their climate effects (ACE-SPACE)(American Meteorological Society, 2019-07-02) Schmale, Julia; Baccarini, Andrea; Thurnherr, Iris; Henning, Silvia; Efraim, Avichay; Regayre, Leighton; Bolas, Conor; Hartmann, Markus; Welti, André; Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Aemisegger, Franziska; Tatzelt, Christian; Landwehr, Sebastian; Modini, Robin l.; Tummon, Fiona; Johnson, Jill S.; Harris, Neil R. P.; Schnaiter, Martin; Toffoli, Alessandro; Derkani, Marzieh; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Stratmann, Frank; Dommen, Josef; Baltensperger, Urs; Wernli, Heini; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Gysel-Beer, Martin; Carslaw, Ken S.Aerosol characteristics over the Southern Ocean are surprisingly heterogeneous because of the distinct regional dynamics and marine microbial regimes. Satellite observations and model simulations underestimate the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei. Uncertainty in radiative forcing caused by aerosol-cloud interactions is about twice as large as for CO2 and remains the least well-understood anthropogenic contribution to climate change. A major cause of uncertainty is the poorly-quantified state of aerosols in the pristine-preindustrial atmosphere, which defines the baseline against which anthropogenic effects are calculated. The Southern Ocean is one of the few remaining near-pristine aerosol environments on Earth, but there are very few measurements to evaluate models. The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE) took place between December 2016 and March 2017 and covered the entire Southern Ocean region (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, ship track > 33,000 km) including previously unexplored areas. In situ measurements covered aerosol characteristics (e.g., chemical composition, size distributions, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations), trace gases and meteorological variables. Remote sensing observations of cloud properties, the physical and microbial ocean state, as well as back trajectory analyses are used to interpret the in situ data. The contribution of sea spray to CCN in the westerly wind belt can be larger than 50%. The abundance of methanesulfonic acid indicates local and regional microbial influence on CCN abundance in Antarctic coastal waters and in the open ocean. We use the in situ data to evaluate simulated CCN concentrations from a global aerosol model. The extensive, available ACE-SPACE dataset (https://zenodo.org/communities/spi-ace?page=1&size=20) provides an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate models and to reduce the uncertainty in radiative forcing associated with the natural processes of aerosol emission, formation, transport and processing occurring over the pristine Southern Ocean.Item Open Access Road traffic emission dispersion modelling: an application to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city using ADMS.(Cranfield University, 2020-08) Ngo, Khoi Quang (Lucas); Mead, Iq; Harris, Neil R. P.Urban air quality in Vietnam has become a pressing matter that require immediate attention to ensure a sustainable development. However due to the overreliance on in-situ observations, which only measure the end result, there is limited understanding of the connection between pollution sources and concentrations. This in turn hinders the effectiveness of environmental law enforcement and management. Since road traffic is widely regarded as the main polluter, attempts have been made to adopt atmospheric dispersion models to traffic emission in Vietnam. Most however, suggest that due to input data scarcity, model applications are limited. This work therefore employed ADMS, an advanced dispersion model that is highly adaptable to produce a full mapping of road traffic derived emission for Hanoi and HCMC, i.e. Vietnam’s 2 most populated cities. Also, a modelling framework, which exploits existing, quality traffic data to generate suitable model inputs, was developed. With this framework, a detailed GIS-based road network dataset that contains road parameters, vehicle count and travel-condition-depending emission factor was produced. Carbon Monoxide was modelled as a pilot pollutant species. Resulted concentrations show an overall moderate positive correlation with observations (r = 0.4). Inadequate information on background pollution however prevents in-depth model validation to be conducted. In overall, this work demonstrates the compatibility of ADMS with the circumstance of Vietnam. Combined with an improved data processing framework, applications of dispersion model in developing countries can be greatly expanded.Item Open Access Surface fluxes of bromoform and dibromomethane over the tropical western Pacific inferred from airborne in situ measurements(Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2018-10-15) Feng, Liang; Palmer, Paul I.; Butler, Robyn; Andrews, Stephen J.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Donets, Valeria; Harris, Neil R. P.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Pan, Laura L.; Schauffler, Sue M.We infer surface fluxes of bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromoform (CH2Br2) from aircraft observations over the western Pacific using a tagged version of the GEOS-Chem global 3-D atmospheric chemistry model and a maximum a posteriori inverse model. Using GEOS-Chem (GC) as an intermediary, we find that the distribution of a priori ocean emissions of these gases are reasonably consistent with observed atmospheric mole fractions of CHBr3 (r = 0.62) and CH2Br2 (r = 0.38). These a priori emissions result in a positive model bias in CHBr3 peaking in the marine boundary layer, but reproduce observed values of CH2Br2 with no significant bias by virtue of its longer atmospheric lifetime. Using GEOS-Chem, we find that observed variations in atmospheric CHBr3 are determined equally by sources over the western Pacific and those outside the study region, but observed variations in CH2Br2 are determined mainly by sources outside the western Pacific. Numerical closed-loop experiments show that the spatial and temporal distribution of boundary layer aircraft data have the potential to substantially improve current knowledge of these fluxes, with improvements related to data density. Using the aircraft data, we estimate aggregated regional fluxes of 3.6±0.3×108 and 0.7±0.1×108gmonth−1 for CHBr3 and CH2Br2 over 130–155°E and 0–12°N, respectively, which represent reductions of 20%–40% of the prior inventories by Ordóñez et al. (2012) and substantial spatial deviations from different a priori inventories. We find no evidence to support a robust linear relationship between CHBr3 and CH2Br2 oceanic emissions, as used by previous studies. We find that over regions with dense observation coverage, our choice of a priori inventory does not significantly impact our reported a posteriori flux estimates.Item Open Access Uncertain pathways to a future safe climate(American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2024-06-06) Sherwood, S. C.; Hegerl, G.; Braconnot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Goelzer, H.; Harris, Neil R. P.; Holland, E.; Kim, H.; Mitchell, M.; Naish, T.; Nobre, P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Reed, K. A.; Renwick, J.; van der Wel, N. P. M.Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises–as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. These poorly known factors could substantially affect the urgency of mitigation as well as adaptation decisions. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society. We need to do this even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. We argue that upcoming climate assessments need to be more risk-aware, and suggest ways of achieving this. These strategies improve the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.