Browsing by Author "Holden, J."

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    Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures
    (Elsevier, 2009-11) Reed, M. S.; Arblaster, K.; Bullock, C.; Burton, R. J. F.; Davies, A. L.; Holden, J.; Hubacek, K.; May, R.; Mitchley, J.; Morris, Joe; Nainggolan, D.; Potter, C.; Quinn, Claire Helen; Swales, V.; Thorp, S.
    Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models.
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    Water quality and UK agriculture: challenges and opportunities
    (Wiley: 12 months, 2017-02-14) Holden, J.; Haygarth, P. M.; Dunn, N.; Harris, Jim A.; Harris, R. C.; Humble, A.; Jenkins, A.; MacDonald, J.; McGonigle, D. F.; Meacham, T.; Orr, H. G.
    There are high aspirations for environmental water quality targets in the UK, but requirements for significant growth in agricultural production to meet both food security objectives and provide viable livelihoods for farmers make these hard to achieve. Significant water quality challenges are related to nutrients, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, pathogens, sediments and habitat alteration. To facilitate the challenges posed, there is a need for predictive, spatially distributed models to be developed that encompass the key aspects of agriculture and water management in order to inform future policy and organizations with an interest in land management. Additionally, there needs to be recognition from policy makers that different solutions are needed in different agri-water systems and that it often takes many years or decades for policies to have a sustained water quality impact. Long-term support for research infrastructure and the scientific skills base is required to enable measurement and data analysis necessary to inform decision making. Farmers need clearly articulated information on the issues and potential solutions on which to make informed management decisions regarding water. There are existing solutions to some problems and this knowledge needs to be effectively disseminated with appropriate incentives for implementation to have maximum impact. Greater collaboration between researchers, industry, and policy makers, with the necessary framework to deliver effective joint working, is urgently needed. There is also a need for a wider societal understanding of the land–water system and the various ways in which society pays (and might pay in the future) for the real value of water.