Browsing by Author "Lickorish, Fiona A."
Now showing 1 - 11 of 11
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access A 2017 horizon scan of emerging issues for global conservation and biological diversity(Elsevier, 2016-12-10) Sutherland, William J.; Barnard, Phoebe; Broad, Steven; Clout, Mick; Connor, Ben; Côté, Isabelle M.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Fox, Marie; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gibbons, David W.; Jiang, Zhigang; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A.; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C.; Ockendon, NancyOpen Access We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.Item Open Access Assessing interdependent operational, tactical and strategic risks for improved utility master plans(Elsevier, 2015-02-20) Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.Risk management plays a key role in water utilities. Although risk tools are well-established at operational levels, approaches at the strategic level are rarely informed by systemic assessments of the water supply and lack a long-term perspective. Here, we report a baseline strategic risk analysis, founded on a systemic analysis of operational risks developed ‘bottom-up’ and validated in a large water utility. Deploying an action-oriented research method, supported by semi- structured interviews with in-house water utility risk experts, deep connections are established between operational risk and strategic risk that surpass those existing elsewhere in the sector. Accessible presentational formats – influence diagrams, risk ”heat-maps” and supporting narratives are used to promote Board-level risk discussions, and characterise a baseline set of strategic risks core to forward utility master planning. Uniquely, the influence of operational events, exposures and potential harms, together with the mitigating measures in place to mediate these risks are linked to corporate objectives on business sustainability, profitability, water quality, water quantity, supply disruption and reputation.Item Open Access Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities(Springer, 2021-05-25) Luís, Ana; Garnett, Kenisha; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Jude, Simon; Leinster, PaulRisks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.Item Open Access Future foods: Morphological scenarios to explore changes in the UK food system with implications for food safety across the food chain(Elsevier, 2023-03-20) Garnett, Kenisha; Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Medina-Vayá, Ángel; Magan, Naresh; Leinster, Paul; Terry, Leon A.Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic.Item Open Access The green economy: The link between corporate social responsibility and financial performance during economic shocks(Cranfield University, 2015-01) Donnelly, Myles; Angus, Andrew; Lickorish, Fiona A.A prominent claim within the literature is that ‘green’ firms are fundamentally more resilient to financial, environmental and social shocks, relative to firms that take no environmental action. To test this, this study compared the financial performance of firms in the UK FTSE4good, and similar firms outside the FTSE4Good through selected financial, environmental and social shocks Firstly the FTSE4Good indices were compared to the performance of the FTSE All-Share through several shocks. The results of which indicated through average returns, ranking performance and descriptive statistics that the FTSE4good Benchmark did not provide resilience in excess of the FTSE All-Share. The lack of significance was thought to be the consequence of diversification caused by the heterogeneity of each firm’s core business. The FTSE4good UK 50 showed neither and advantage nor disadvantage in resilience performance relative to the FTSE All-Share but the higher moments in the distribution of the returns (skewness and kurtosis) shows evidence of decreased risk in producing extreme negative returns. Furthermore, the discrepancies were also thought to be a consequence of the level at which FTSE4good include firms in the index series. To account for this discrepancy, FTSE4good’s ESG ratings were used to identify the best in class firms, eliminating middle ground performance. Only firms classified according to social performance showed conclusive evidence of an advantage for investors who could reduce their risk profile by selecting only firms with relatively high social responsibility ratings. The results show that the assumption that green firms are more resilient to shocks is too imprecise, at least when analysed in terms of financial performance across the period covered by this study. To become a more effective indicator of environmental, social and governance performance the FTSE4good must demand higher levels of performance from constituent firms and punish any transgressions more severely.Item Open Access A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2014-01-31T00:00:00Z) Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Rosalind; Brooks, Thomas M.; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Rodriguez, Jon Paul; Smith, Rebecca K.; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Watkinson, Andrew R.This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease.Item Open Access A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016(Elsevier, 2015-12-11) Sutherland, William J.; Broad, Steven; Caine, Jacqueline; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; LeAnstey, Becky; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Ockendon, Nancy; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C.; Wright, Katherine E.This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.Item Open Access Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning(PLOS (Public Library of Science), 2014-05-30T00:00:00Z) Parker, Miles; Acland, Andrew; Armstrong, Harry J.; Bellingham, Jim R.; Bland, Jessica; Bodmer, Helen C.; Burall, Simon; Castell, Sarah; Chilvers, Jason; Cleevely, David D.; Cope, David; Costanzo, Lucia; Dolan, James A.; Doubleday, Robert; Feng, Wai Yi; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Good, David A.; Grant, Jonathan; Green, Nick; Groen, Arnoud J.; Guilliams, Tim T.; Gupta, Sunjai; Hall, Amanda C.; Heathfield, Adam; Hotopp, Ulrike; Kass, Gary; Leeder, Tim; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Lueshi, Leila M.; Magee, Chris; Mata, Tiago; McBride, Tony; McCarthy, Natasha; Mercer, Alan; Neilson, Ross; Ouchikh, Jackie; Oughton, Edward J.; Oxenham, David; Pallett, Helen; Palmer, James; Patmore, Jeff; Petts, Judith; Pinkerton, Jan; Ploszek, Richard; Pratt, Alan; Rocks, Sophie A.; Stansfield, Neil; Surkovic, Elizabeth; Tyler, Christopher P.; Watkinson, Andrew R.; Wentworth, Jonny; Willis, Rebecca; Wollner, Patrick K. A.; Worts, Kim; Sutherland, William J.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Item Open Access Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions(Elsevier, 2016-04-17) Garnett, Kenisha; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Prpich, George; Rathe, A. A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.Item Open Access Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks-heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2013-10-01T00:00:00Z) Prpich, George; Dagonneau, J.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.Item Open Access Strategic risk management in water utilities: development of a holistic approach linking risks and futures(Cranfield University, 2014-06) Linares Luis, Ana Margarida; Pollard, Simon; Lickorish, Fiona A.Risk management plays a key role in water utilities. Although tools are well established at operational and tactical levels of management, existing methods at strategic level lack a holistic treatment and a long-term perspective. In fact, risks are analysed per se, despite being interconnected; and long-term scenarios are commonly used for strategic planning, rather than for risk management, most of the time being related to one single issue (for example: climate change). In order to overcome the limitations identified in the existing methodologies, a novel approach for water utilities to manage risk at strategic level was developed and tested in EPAL - the largest and oldest water utility in Portugal. It consists of (i) setting a baseline risks comparison founded on a systemic model developed ‗bottom-up‘ through the business; (ii) the construction of future scenarios and an observation of how baseline risks may change with time. Major contributions of this research are the linkage between operational and strategic risks, capturing the interdependencies between strategic risks; the ability to look at long term risk, allowing the visualizing of the way strategic risks may change under a possible future scenario; and the novel coupling of risks and futures research. For the water sector, this approach constitutes a useful tool for strategic planning, which may be presented to the Board of Directors in a simple and intuitive way, despite the solid foundations of the underlying analysis. It also builds on in-house expertise, promoting the dissemination and pervasiveness of risk management within the companies and, on the other hand, allowing unveiling of existing knowledge, making it explicit and more useful for the organization.