Browsing by Author "Pollard, Simon"

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    Application of high reliability theory in the water utility sector
    (Cranfield University, 2008-08) Bradshaw, R. A.; Pollard, Simon
    In the literature, a need was identified to consider the provision of drinking water to be a ‘high reliability’ societal service. This thesis reports on an investigation into the technical and organisational reliability of a defined section in the water utility sector and a Regional Water Utility. Here, the organisational reliability in operations and incident management, and, secondly, the management of technical reliability of water supply systems arising from risk-based asset management were the emphasis of this project. In order to substantiate this investigation, three main research components were designed and conducted: firstly, a characterisation of the nature of incidents and their impact on customers; secondly, an investigation into organisational capabilities to manage incidents and its role in maintaining a resilient water supply system that minimises the impact of incidents on customers, and thirdly, an investigation into riskbased asset management strategies that provide and maintain the technical reliability of the water supply system. In the latter perspective, the opportunity to learn from previous incidents to enhance asset risk assessments was investigated. In this study, it was found that many HRO principles are readily observable in the water utilities that participated in this research. Following the characterisation of incidents, it is demonstrated that the observation of HRO principles during incident management has a positive effect on the overall reduction of incident impacts on customers. Beyond the immediate effect of HRO principles in incident management, it could be demonstrated that ‘learning from failure’ provides a mechanism to understand and manage future risks. The concept of incident meta-analysis is introduced that compares series of past incidents with documented perceived, future risks. The statistical analysis of incident time series facilitated the monitoring of incident trends, the validation of the risk model used in the Regional Water Utility and the verification of risk data, in particular for the risk components ‘probability, cause, effect and impact’.
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    Benchmarking risk management practice within the water utility sector
    (Cranfield University, 2006-12) MacGillivray, Brian H.; Pollard, Simon; Strutt, J. E.
    Explicit approaches to risk analysis within the water utility sector, traditionally applied to occupational health and safety and public health protection, are now seeing broader application in contexts including corporate level decision making, asset management, watershed protection and network reliability. Our research suggested that neither the development of novel risk analysis techniques nor the refinement of existing ones was of paramount importance in improving the capabilities of water utilities to manage risk. It was thought that a more fruitful approach would be to focus on the implementation of risk management rather than the techniques employed per se. Thus, we developed a prescriptive capability maturity model for benchmarking the maturity of implementation of water utility risk management practice, and applied it to the sector via case study and benchmarking survey. We observed risk management practices ranging from the application of hazard and operability studies, to the use of scenario planning in guiding organisational restructuring programmes. We observed methods for their institutionalisation, including the use of initiation criteria for applying risk analysis techniques; the adoption of formalised procedures to guide their application; and auditing and peer reviews to ensure procedural compliance and provide quality assurance. We then built upon this research to develop a descriptive1 capability maturity model of utility risk analysis and risk based decision making practice, and described its case study application. The contribution to knowledge of this stage of the research was three-fold, we: synthesized empirical observations with behavioral and normative theories to codify the processes of risk analysis and risk based decision making; placed these processes within a maturity framework which distinguishes their relative maturity of implementation from ad hoc to adaptive; and provided a comparative analysis of risk analysis and risk based decision making practices, and their maturity of implementation, across a range of utility functions. The research provides utility managers, technical staff, project managers and chief finance officers with a practical and systematic understanding of how to implement and improve risk management, and offers preliminary guidance to regulators concerning how improved water utility governance can be made real.
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    Bioaerosol release from composting facilities
    (Cranfield University, 2005-10) Mohamed Taha, M. P. B; Pollard, Simon; Longhurst, Philip
    The use of composting is expected to increase dramatically due to its economic and environmental benefits. For public health protection, regulators and licensing authorities are requesting risk assessments to be conducted prior to the development and operation of composting. Significant amounts of microrganisms can be aerosolised and transported by winds to points of exposure. However, the source term factors that influence their release and their dispersal are not fully understood. In this thesis a method to measure viable bioaerosols emission rates from static compost pile surfaces and during the agitation of compost was developed. The factors that influence the emission of bioaerosols from compost piles of different ages and during different agitation activities were evaluated. A wind tunnel analysis was successfully used to measure the surface flux bioaerosols emission rate. Newly estimated emission rates from various source terms were then modelled to produce source depletion curves. The surface emission flux of a static pile was estimated to be 102 to 104cfu/m2/s for both A. fumigatus and actinomycetes. The turning of compost releases the highest bioaerosols concentration range from 104 to 108cfu/s compared with the shredding and screening. The turning of an early stage compost windrow emitted the highest amount of bioaerosols. This study introduces a new method for quantifying bioaerosols dispersal, thus improving the risk assessments required for environmental permitting.
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    Data supporting: 'Real-life resilience: exploring the organisational environment of international water utilities'
    (Cranfield University, 2022-08-31 15:46) Giffoni, Eduarda; Jude, Simon; Smith, Heather; Pollard, Simon
    Dataset containing the themes devised from semi-structured interviews with representatives of the water sector.
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    An evidence base and critique for environmental regulatory reform
    (Cranfield University, 2013-12) Taylor, Christopher M.; Pollard, Simon; Angus, Andrew
    Societies have established various forms of governance to protect the natural environment from the adverse effects of human activity. While direct “command and control” regulation has achieved significant improvements in environmental protection, concerns for its efficiency have led governments to seek alternative approaches to achieve environmental policy objectives. Commentators describe a shift from “government” to “governance” as policy makers and regulators seek to harness wider social forces beyond government, while risk-based regulation is pursued to target constrained regulatory resources for maximum effect. However, robust evidence for the effectiveness of different forms of regulation is lacking. This thesis addresses this gap, providing an evidence base for instrument selection and a data-informed critique of regulatory reform practice. Research followed a case study strategy, gathering qualitative data through 58 in-depth semi-structured interviews, analysed using the NVIVO™ Computer Aided Qualitative Data Analysis System (CAQDAS), with senior policy makers at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, England (Defra) and senior executives in businesses and trade associations in 5 UK sectors. (1) A new typology of regulatory instruments has been compiled, validated with sector experts, refined for policy end-users, and published as part of Defra’s guidance on instrument selection. (2) The critical case of instrument selection in practice at Defra has been examined for the first time, revealing factors affecting choice, the use of coregulation to develop evidence and the importance of retaining policy maker skills for new forms of regulation. (3) A multiple-case study of senior business representatives found five strongly preferred voluntary regulation, seven expressed significant doubts about its effectiveness, and 19 expressed no general preference. While voluntary approaches were valued for flexibility and lower burdens, direct regulation offered stability and a level playing field. They sought inter alia coherent, evidence based regulatory frameworks, delivered through positive regulatory relationships. This research progresses the better and smarter regulation debate on the use of alternatives to direct regulation and has already been used to inform policy making in practice.
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    Guidance for lay audiences on regulatory instrument selection
    (Cranfield University, 2018-07-19 10:56) Pollard, Simon; Taylor, Christopher M.
    The purpose of this guide, authored by Dr Chris Taylor, is to help policy makers and regulators develop ideas for achieving policy objectives that make use of the full range of policy and regulatory instruments at your disposal (e.g. emission licences, tradable permit schemes, product labelling, voluntary agreements). It could be used to design new measures, or to identify better ways than at present to achieve objectives that harness the influence of non-government actors. It is intended to spark thinking and debate. You could use this guide to help stimulate your own thinking, or to support a discussion with your team or other stakeholders. The content focuses on describing the range of instruments that could be used and exploring when they are suitable. It focuses on instruments to tackle environmental risks, though many of the approaches described can also be used for other policy objectives. It is assumed that the reader already has a good understanding of the policy objectives to be met, the forms of market failure (e.g. polluters not compensating for damage caused) or other policy considerations that lead to the need for intervention, the stakeholders involved and the environmental, social and economic systems that connect them together. It is also assumed that the option of doing nothing has been considered but is unacceptable. In line with the Defra Policy Cycle, instrument ideas sparked from this guide will need to be developed into full proposals and their impact assessed. This development process is beyond the scope of this guide.
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    The impact of regulation, ownership arrangements, and management culture on risk management practices within the water industry
    (Cranfield University, 2015-10) Allan, Richard; Jeffrey, Paul; Pollard, Simon
    Although the specifics of water utility ownership, regulation and management culture have been explored in terms of their impact on economic and customer value, there has been little meaningful engagement with their influence on the risk environment and risk management. Using a two phase case study approach as the primary source of information, this thesis asks what are the particular features of regulation, ownership arrangements and management culture which influence risk management, and what are the implications of these relationships in the context of ambitions for resilient organizations? In addressing these queries, the thesis considers the mindful choices and adjustments a utility must make to its risk management strategy to manage strategic tensions between efficiency, risk and delivery of safe drinking water. The case studies expose a tension between the ambition of the water service providers` strategic objectives to provide safe drinking water and the priority that executives place on corporate financial health. This leads to the conclusion that public health risk rankings need re-evaluation in relation to financial risks. There was no evidence to demonstrate that public health risk mitigation had been costed and evaluated against the strategic objectives of the studied organisations. Furthermore, the nature of risk conversations varied within organisations, changing the meaning of risk vertically within the business. A proposed model for the reporting of risk tolerance and risk appetite with respect to mitigating public health risk is the result. Such approaches to risk reporting and costing will support water authorities in meeting corporate aspirations to become ‘high reliability’ services while retaining the capacity to out-perform financial and service level targets, irrespective of regulation, ownership arrangements or management culture.
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    Improving water asset management when data are sparse
    (Cranfield University, 2013) Dlamini, Delly; Pollard, Simon; Wu, S.
    Ensuring the high of assets in water utilities is critically important and requires continuous improvement. This is due to the need to minimise risk of harm to human health and the environment from contaminated drinking water. Continuous improvement and innovation in water asset management are therefore, necessary and are driven by (i) increased regulatory requirements on serviceability; (ii) high maintenance costs, (iii) higher customer expectations, and (iv) enhanced environmental and health/safety requirements. High quality data on asset failures, maintenance, and operations are key requirements for developing reliability models. However, a literature search revealed that, in practice, there is sometimes limited data in water utilities - particularly for over-ground assets. Perhaps surprisingly, there is often a mismatch between the ambitions of sophisticated reliability tools and the availability of asset data water utilities are able to draw upon to implement them in practice. This research provides models to support decision-making in water utility asset management when there is limited data. Three approaches for assessing asset condition, maintenance effectiveness and selecting maintenance regimes for specific asset groups were developed. Expert elicitation was used to test and apply the developed decision-support tools. A major regional water utility in England was used as a case study to investigate and test the developed approaches. The new approach achieved improved precision in asset condition assessment (Figure 3–3a) - supporting the requirements of the UK Capital Maintenance Planning Common Framework. Critically, the thesis demonstrated that, on occasion, assets were sometimes misallocated by more than 50% between condition grades when using current approaches. Expert opinions were also sought for assessing maintenance effectiveness, and a new approach was tested with over-ground assets. The new approach’s value was demonstrated by the capability to account for finer measurements (as low as 10%) of maintenance effectiveness (Table 4-4). An asset maintenance regime selection approach was developed to support decision-making when data are sparse. The value of the approach is its versatility in selecting different regimes for different asset groups, and specifically accounting for the assets unique performance variables.
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    New insights into the biotransformation of weathered hydrocarbons in soil
    (Cranfield University, 2008-03) Brassington, Kirsty J.; Pollard, Simon; Coulon, Frederic
    Weathered petroleum hydrocarbons are a highly complex, important soil contaminant. After forty years of petroleum research, weathered hydrocarbons are still not sufficiently understood or appropriately accounted for in contaminated land risk assessments or the associated analytical methods that inform them. Improved insights into these contaminants potential for biotransformation and their residual toxicity are essential for improving risk assessments, bioremediation strategies and effective regeneration of previously contaminated land. This thesis explores the biotransformation of weathered hydrocarbons in the context of risk assessment and management. The research includes a critical review and synthesis of six in-house historical pilot studies, implementation of a novel ultrasonic solvent extraction method for petroleum hydrocarbons and development of analytical tools, providing new insights for human and environmental risk assessments. The biotransformation potential and subsequent effect on the toxicity of two weathered hydrocarbon contaminated soils were investigated using soil microcosms. The use of a previously remediated soil provided novel insight into extended bioremediation potential for petroleum hydrocarbon residues to undergo further biotransformation. The novel ultrasonic extraction method developed collaboratively is a preferred alternative to traditional Soxhlet methods with very high precision (RSD ≤ 10%) and extraction efficiencies. Key benefits of the technique include reduced costs, shorter extraction times (1 h. vs. 8 h.) lower solvent consumption (40 ml vs. 150 ml) and improved extraction efficiencies (recovery ≥ 95 %). Ecotoxicological responses (using mustard seed germination and Microtox® assays) showed that a reduction in total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) load within soils could not necessarily be linked to a reduction in residual toxicity, thus reductions in TPH alone is not a suitable indicator of risk reduction. The residues in the previously remediated soil underwent further biotransformation with losses of up to 86 and 92 % in the aliphatic and aromatic fractions respectively. Grinding of this soil was shown to reduce the effectiveness of a nutrient treatment on the extent of biotransformation possible by up to 25% and 20% for the aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon fractions, respectively. Toxicity assays confirmed that biotransformation is not physically driven by surface area limitations, contrary to expectation, as responses of ground and un-ground soils were not significantly different (P>0.05). This may have implications for future studies using grinding as a pre-treatment, where biotransformation may be limited by grinding rather than other factors. Both the soils showed significant biotransformation (P<0.05) after 16 weeks of treatment. However, although the soil not previously treated had significantly less TPH losses, a loss of up to 92% shows that further degradation of this soil is possible even though previous investigations had suggested biotransformation had stopped. This has implications for bioremediation practitioners in that it questions whether bioremediation could be restarted and lower concentrations achieved, and warrants further investigation.
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    Opening the black box : what makes risk management pervasive in organisations?
    (Cranfield University, 2012-12-21) Mauelshagen, Craig William; Pollard, Simon; Denyer, David
    This thesis is concerned with what pervasive risk management is, and how it can be achieved in practice. Specifically, it examines the effect of social processes and cultural factors on how risk management can be coordinated across and embedded within business processes and organisational culture. A growing literature addresses what is termed risk management maturity: the capability of an organisation to assess, manage, communicate and govern risk (and opportunity). Notwithstanding its benefits, the emphasis of this literature on risk management benchmarking and standardisation has led, arguably, to a bureaucratisation of risk management process. Research followed a case study strategy and data were gathered through semi-structured interviews. A total of 43 interviews were conducted in one private and one public sector organisation. The findings describe a number of social processes and related cultural factors that significantly affected risk management pervasiveness in the two organisations. (1) Shared experience and respect for experience facilitated flexible coordination between operational and strategic risk management. (2) Informal, lateral communication integrated the knowledge of diverse stakeholders required to manage complex environmental risks. (3) Lack of common understanding of the purpose and function of risk management undermined coordination of risk management practice. These findings progress the debate on the balance between standardisation and informal social process to achieve pervasive risk management, and contribute to a richer description of organisational risk management maturity. The findings are of value to risk managers wishing to embed the adaptive and coordinated risk management required in dynamic and complex environments
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    Plausible future scenarios for the UK food and feed system - 2015 and 2030. Report for the UK Food Standards Agency
    (Cranfield University, Institute for Environment, Health, Risk and Futures (IEHRF), 2014-06) Garnett, Kenisha; Delgado, João; Lickorish, Fiona; Medina-Vayá, Ángel; Magan, Naresh; Shaw, Hayley; Rathé, Anna; Chatterton, Julia; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon; Terry, Leon A
    The report describes the key drivers of the wider environment which informed the development of the scenarios. There are case studies of three representative food types, which illustrate how the scenarios may be used to explore triggers for change in food production and supply in the next 20 years, and what the emerging food safety implications might be under each scenario.
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    Risk assessments, quality protocols and other publically-available research reports supporting the risk estimates presented in "Environmental International Risk assessments for quality-assured, source-segregated composts and anaerobic digestates for a circular bioeconomy in the UK".
    (Cranfield University, 2019-03-20 09:27) Pollard, Simon; Longhurst, Philip; Villa, Raffaella; Sakrabani, Ruben; Leinster, Paul; Tyrrel, Sean
    Longhurst et al. (2019) Environment International. Risk assessments for quality-assured, source-segregated composts and anaerobic digestates for a circular bioeconomy in the UK. The publically-available risk assessments, quality protocols and other publically-available research reports supporting the risk estimates presented in this paper (accepted to ENVINT) are collated here. The Environment International paper reports residual risk estimates and hazard quotients for microbiological and chemical risks in quality-assured composts and digestates prepared under quality protocols from source-segregated biodegradable wastes. This CORD record here collates WRAP and associated research reports supporting the risk estimates and hazard quotients discussed in this summary paper, including risk assessments and quality protocols.
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    Strategic risk management in water utilities: development of a holistic approach linking risks and futures
    (Cranfield University, 2014-06) Linares Luis, Ana Margarida; Pollard, Simon; Lickorish, Fiona A.
    Risk management plays a key role in water utilities. Although tools are well established at operational and tactical levels of management, existing methods at strategic level lack a holistic treatment and a long-term perspective. In fact, risks are analysed per se, despite being interconnected; and long-term scenarios are commonly used for strategic planning, rather than for risk management, most of the time being related to one single issue (for example: climate change). In order to overcome the limitations identified in the existing methodologies, a novel approach for water utilities to manage risk at strategic level was developed and tested in EPAL - the largest and oldest water utility in Portugal. It consists of (i) setting a baseline risks comparison founded on a systemic model developed ‗bottom-up‘ through the business; (ii) the construction of future scenarios and an observation of how baseline risks may change with time. Major contributions of this research are the linkage between operational and strategic risks, capturing the interdependencies between strategic risks; the ability to look at long term risk, allowing the visualizing of the way strategic risks may change under a possible future scenario; and the novel coupling of risks and futures research. For the water sector, this approach constitutes a useful tool for strategic planning, which may be presented to the Board of Directors in a simple and intuitive way, despite the solid foundations of the underlying analysis. It also builds on in-house expertise, promoting the dissemination and pervasiveness of risk management within the companies and, on the other hand, allowing unveiling of existing knowledge, making it explicit and more useful for the organization.
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    Systemic modelling applied to studying outbreaks of exotic animal diseases
    (Cranfield University, 2011-11) Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Longhurst, Philip; Pollard, Simon
    Context and rationale – This work originates from policy priorities established within Defra to manage exotic animal diseases (EAD); specifically to understand the causes of low probability events, and to establish contingencies to manage outbreak incidents. Outbreaks of exotic animal diseases, e.g. FMD, CSF and HPAI, can cause economic and social impacts of catastrophic proportions. The UK’s government develops and implements policies and controls to prevent EAD and thus minimise these impacts. Control policies to achieve this are designed to address the vulnerabilities within the control systems. However, data are limited for both the introduction of an EAD as well as its resurgence following the disposal of infected carcasses, i.e. the pre-outbreak and post-outbreak phases of an EAD event. These lack of data compromises the development of policy interventions to improve protection. To overcome these data limitations, predictive models are used to predict system vulnerabilities. Cont/d.
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    Towards sustainable landfill management
    (2006-11) Smith, Richard; Pollard, Simon
    The UK is reliant on landfill as a waste management option with some 72% w/w of municipal waste landfilled in 2003/04. This thesis advances an argument that landfill, as practised historically and currently, is unsustainable. This thesis demonstrates, specifically, that current legislative aftercare provisions of 30-60 years are inadequate with reference to modelled landfill completion times (the achievement of equilibrium status) of up to 2,000 years. Uniquely, the research quantifies the scale and significance of methane emissions during the early stages (up to 28 months waste age) of landfill operations at 21 UK landfills using a modified flux box. The onset of methanogenesis is quantified for the first time, using a series of in situ monitoring probes installed at one UK landfill site. A significant and novel finding is that the advective flow of landfill gas is preferentially dominated by lateral movement, evidenced here by examination of a predominantly municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill site in Southern England. The direct implications of this finding for the design of landfill gas management systems are discussed. For future landfills, this research has examined a number of UK scenarios in which the gas and leachate characteristics from waste residues going to landfill are modelled to the point of completion or achievement of equilibrium status. This analysis now allows for a comparative assessment of the future performance of landfills. Under these scenarios, completion times can be reduced in some instances {e.g. landfilling of compost and mechanical biological treatment residues) and extended in others (incinerator bottom ash). Problematic contaminants remain; notably arsenic, chromium and lead. Using the research herein, the work describes the application of a landfill gas management hierarchy. In part response to the requirements of the EU Landfill Directive, this provides a science-based framework for operators to maximise protection of the environment and human health from gaseous emissions. The research provides evidence that can be used by landfill managers seeking to maximise landfill collection efficiency. This contributes to regulators managing public and environmental health and is increasingly significant for climate change.
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    Whither regulation, risk and water safety plans? Case studies from Malaysia and from England and Wales
    (Cranfield University, 2020-10-12 16:45) Pollard, Simon; Hasan, Hafizah; Parker, Alison
    We explore the interplay between preventative risk management and regulatory style for the implementation of water safety plans in Malaysia and in England and Wales, two jurisdictions with distinct philosophies of approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 32 water safety professionals in Malaysia, 23 in England and Wales, supported by 6 Focus Group Discussions (n=53 participants). A grounded theory approach produced insights on the transition from drinking water quality surveillance to preventative risk management. Themes familiar to this type of regulatory transition emerged, including concerns about compliance policy; overseeing the risk management controls of regulatees with varied competencies and funds available to drive change; and the portfolio of interventions suited to a more facilitative regulatory style. Because the potential harm from waterborne illness is high where pathogen exposures occur, the transition to risk-informed regulation demands mature organisational cultures among water utilities and regulators, and a laser-like focus on ensuring risk management controls are delivered within water supply systems.