Browsing by Author "Salmoral, Gloria"
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Item Open Access Agricultural development in Ecuador: A compromise between water and food security?(Elsevier, 2018-08-01) Salmoral, Gloria; Khatun, Kaysara; Llive, Freddy; Madrid Lopez, CristinaEcuador is facing several threats to its food and water security, with over a tenth of its population currently undernourished and living in poverty. As a response, its government is incorporating new patterns of land use and developing regional water infrastructure to cope with the related challenges. In this study, we assess to what point these efforts contribute to integrated water and food security in the country. We investigated the period 2004–2013 in the most productive agricultural region - the Guayas river basin district (GRBD) - and analysed the impacts of different scenarios of agricultural change on local water security. Our approach integrates MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism) with the hydrological SWAT model. Freshwater allocation is evaluated within all the water cycle from its source (natural systems) to the final users (societal systems). Water security is assessed spatiotemporally in terms of water stress for the population living in poverty. Water productivity is obtained in relation to agricultural production and nutrition. The multi-scale analysis shows that whereas at national level the median annual streamflow has a similar magnitude than rainfall stored in soil, these two parameters differ spatiotemporally at subbasin level. The study finds the greatest challenges in achieving water security is the south-east and central part of the GRBD, due to water scarcity and a larger population living in poverty. However, these areas are also simultaneously, where the greatest crop water productivity is found. We conclude that food production for both domestic consumption and market-oriented exports can be increased while meeting ecosystem water demands in all the GRBD regions except for the east. Our integration of methods provide a better approach to inform integrated land and water management and is relevant for academics, practitioners and policymakers alike.Item Open Access The contribution of a catchment-scale advice network to successful agricultural drought adaptation in Northern Thailand(The Royal Society, 2022-10-24) Goodwin, Daniel; Holman, Ian P.; Sutcliffe, Chloe; Salmoral, Gloria; Pardthaisong, Liwa; Visessri, Supattra; Ekkawatpanit, Chaiwat; Rey Vicario, DoloresThe intensification of drought affects agricultural production, leading to economic losses, environmental degradation and social impacts. To move toward more resilient system configurations requires understanding the processes that shape farmers' adaptation amidst complex institutional contexts. Social networks are an important part of collective action for supporting adaptive capacity and there are continuing calls to strengthen network connectivity for agricultural governance under the impacts of climate change. Through a survey of 176 farmers in northern Thailand, we explore the extent to which the characteristics of information shared in a catchment advice network are associated with adaptations. Statistical analyses reveal the perceived efficacy of communications as well as farmers’ relative closeness in the advice network to be positively associated with adaptation to drought. We identify a capacity for local actors to bridge information bottlenecks in the network and opportunities for institutions to enhance their dissemination of information to reach less networked farmers. We find that not all adaptations are perceived as effective against future drought and infer opportunities to support engagement with extension services, encourage the sharing of local knowledge and experience and devise policy and interventions to strengthen advice networks for more resilient agricultural systems.Item Open Access Drought impacts, coping responses and adaptation in the UK outdoor livestock sector: insights to increase drought resilience(MDPI, 2020-06-18) Salmoral, Gloria; Ababio, Benjamin; Holman, Ian P.Drought has detrimental impacts on crop and livestock farming systems worldwide, but less attention has been given to outdoor livestock systems, particularly in humid temperate regions. This research evaluated how an intense drought in 2018 impacted the UK livestock sector and the responses adopted by key actors, though a combination of analysis of weekly agricultural trade publications and semi-structured interviews with livestock farmers. Drought impacts centred on feed and fodder availability, animal productivity and welfare, farm economics, and farmer well-being, with strong inter-dependencies observed. Most drought responses by farmers were reactive short-term coping strategies to address feed shortages, with three main strategies applied: management of available grazing and feed; selling livestock to reduce feed demand and to obtain income; and buying-in additional feed. Few longer-term adaptive measures were identified due to a range of constraints. Moving forwards, the UK livestock sector needs to convert the learning from the reactive measures implemented in 2018 into pro-active drought planning approaches. The current political changes in the UK also provides a unique opportunity for agricultural policy to better reward the desirable nationally- and locally-important non-market services or public goods that livestock farming provides. Together, these should support increased drought resilience in livestock farming and increased farming viability.Item Open Access Food-energy-water nexus: A life cycle analysis on virtual water and embodied energy in food consumption in the Tamar catchment, UK(Elsevier, 2018-02-21) Salmoral, Gloria; Yan, XiaoyuEvaluations of food, energy and water (FEW) linkages are rapidly emerging in contemporary nexus studies. This paper demonstrates, from a food consumption perspective, the potential of life cycle thinking in understanding the complex and often “hidden” linkages between FEW systems. Our study evaluates the upstream virtual water and embodied energy in food consumption in the Tamar catchment, South West England, distinguishing between domestic production and imports origin. The study also evaluates key inputs, including virtual nutrients and animal feed, when tracking supply chain of food products. Based on current dietary patterns and food products selection, the catchment consumes annually 834 TJ, 17 hm3 and 244 hm3 of energy, blue water and green water, respectively. Tamar is not self-sufficient in terms of food and requires imports of food products, as well as imports of virtual nutrients and animal feed for local production. Consequently, 51% of the embodied energy and 88% blue and 45% green virtual water in food consumed within the catchment are imported. Most of the embodied energy (58%) and green virtual water (90%) are because of animal feed production, where nearly half of embodied energy (48%) and green virtual water (42%) come from imports. 92% of blue virtual water is used for irrigation and primarily happens elsewhere due to imports. Irrigation is the process that demands the largest amount of energy for the crop-based products, with 38% of their total energy demand, followed by fertilisers production (24%). Our study illustrates water and energy hotspots in the food life cycle and highlights potential FEW risks and trade-offs through trade. This is useful considering potential unexpected changes in trade under recent global socio-political trends. Currently available databases and software make LCA a key tool for integrated FEW nexus assessments.Item Open Access Guidelines for the use of unmanned aerial systems in flood emergency response(MDPI, 2020-02-13) Salmoral, Gloria; Rivas Casado, Monica; Muthusamy, Manoranjan; Butler, David; Menon, Prathyush P.; Leinster, PaulThere is increasing interest in using Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in flood risk management activities including in response to flood events. However, there is little evidence that they are used in a structured and strategic manner to best effect. An effective response to flooding is essential if lives are to be saved and suffering alleviated. This study evaluates how UAS can be used in the preparation for and response to flood emergencies and develops guidelines for their deployment before, during and after a flood event. A comprehensive literature review and interviews, with people with practical experience of flood risk management, compared the current organizational and operational structures for flood emergency response in both England and India, and developed a deployment analysis matrix of existing UAS applications. An online survey was carried out in England to assess how the technology could be further developed to meet flood emergency response needs. The deployment analysis matrix has the potential to be translated into an Indian context and other countries. Those organizations responsible for overseeing flood risk management activities including the response to flooding events will have to keep abreast of the rapid technological advances in UAS if they are to be used to best effect.Item Open Access A novel modelling toolkit for unpacking the Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) nexus of agricultural development(Elsevier, 2022-02-09) Correa-Cano, M. E.; Salmoral, Gloria; Rey Vicario, Dolores; Knox, Jerry W.; Graves, Anil; Melo, O.; Foster, W.; Naranjo, L.; Zegarra, E.; Johnson, C.; Viteri-Salazar, O.; Yan, X.Increasing food demand has led to significant agricultural expansion globally with negative impacts on resources and the environment, a perfect manifestation of the Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus. Whilst many tools have been developed to understand the complexity of the Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus most have failed to explicitly consider biophysical and socio-economic aspects simultaneously. A novel Water-Energy-Food-Environment modelling toolkit is developed that integrates both these components by combining different modelling approaches including irrigation simulation, economic modelling and life cycle environmental assessment. The toolkit is demonstrated using two major agro-export crops (asparagus and table grapes) in the Ica Valley, Peru, a severely water-stressed region. The toolkit was able to provide novel insights into the implications of different farming practices on resource efficiency at the field level in relation to water and energy, under contrasting future scenarios reflecting socio-economic outcomes at the local to regional levels (e.g., food prices, employment, and income) as well as environmental impacts at local to global scales. This information enables different stakeholders to better understand the interlinkages and inter-dependences between the Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus elements and the complex impacts of agricultural expansion beyond the immediate sector and its geographical extent, helping decision makers design more coordinated agricultural policies and support sustainable agricultural transformation.Item Open Access A probabilistic risk assessment of the national economic impacts of regulatory drought management on irrigated agriculture(Wiley, 2019-02-03) Salmoral, Gloria; Rey Vicario, Dolores; Rudd, A.; de Margon, P.; Holman, Ian P.Drought frequency and intensity is expected to increase in many regions worldwide, and water shortages could become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, water abstraction for irrigation can be mandatorily reduced by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a novel approach for the probabilistic risk assessment of potential future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with an application to England and Wales. Hydro‐meteorological variability is considered within a synthetic dataset of daily rainfall and river flows for a baseline period (1977‐2004), and for projections for near (2022‐2049) and far (2072‐2099) futures. The probability, magnitude and timing of abstraction restrictions are derived by applying rainfall and river flow triggers in 129 catchments. The risk of economic losses at the catchment level is then obtained from the occurrences of abstraction restrictions combined with spatially distributed crop‐specific economic losses. Results show that restrictions will become more severe, frequent and longer in the future. The highest economic risks are projected where drought‐sensitive crops with a high financial value are concentrated in catchments with increasingly uncertain water supply. This research highlights the significant economic losses associated with mandatory drought restrictions experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental regulators and irrigators to collaboratively manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations.Item Open Access Reconciling irrigation demands for agricultural expansion with environmental sustainability - a preliminary assessment for the Ica Valley, Peru(Elsevier, 2020-08-15) Salmoral, Gloria; Carbó, Araceli Viñarta; Zegarra, Eduardo; Knox, Jerry W.; Rey, DoloresIrrigation expansion driven by a growing global food demand is threatening the sustainability of scarce water resources. An exemplar is the Ica Valley in Peru which has experienced significant agricultural transformation over the last three decades with uncontrolled abstractions leading to over-exploitation of the Ica-Villacuri aquifer. This paper critically assesses the impacts of agricultural expansion on the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources in the Ica Valley. We apply a combination of spatial analysis and irrigation modelling by farming type (large and small-scale), followed by a multi-criteria assessment on irrigation water use. Historical trends in cropped area were analysed using Landsat satellite imagery to identify agricultural expansion and the changing composition between large and small-scale farms. The blue water footprint (WFblue) for croplands was calculated distinguishing between surface and groundwater abstractions for eight disaggregated geographical zones within the Ica Valley. The economic benefits of water consumption were assessed using the water productivity indicator, and the environmental sustainability of water resources spatially evaluated using a monthly blue water sustainability index and adapted version of the groundwater debt. The analyses showed that the groundwater footprint accounts for 87% of the total WFblue (483 Mm3) with 286 Mm3 groundwater consumed under unsustainable conditions (exceeding groundwater recharge). The highest water productivity (2.4-5.4 sol/ton) occurs in zones with intensive groundwater abstractions and where most large-farms are located, but it is also where the sustainability issue is most acute. Modelling showed that based on existing climate conditions and cropping patterns, irrigated agriculture is locally unsustainable throughout the valley, with the exception of small-scale farming in the peri-urban and middle valley areas. Around 10% of total aquifer recharge results from small-scale irrigated farming, whereas recharge from large scale farming is negligible. The greatest impacts occur in zones dominated by large-scale farms, where a period of 3.7 to 5.9 years is estimated to be needed to replenish water resources consumed by agricultural production. There is thus an urgent need to manage water resources more effectively and promote more sustainable use of water to protect both traditional and agro-export agricultural practices as well as allocations for urban water supply and the environmentItem Open Access A remote sensing based integrated approach to quantify the impact of fluvial and pluvial flooding in an urban catchment(MDPI, 2019-03-08) Muthusamy, Manoranjan; Rivas Casado, Monica; Salmoral, Gloria; Irvine, Tracy; Leinster, PaulPluvial (surface water) flooding is often the cause of significant flood damage in urban areas. However, pluvial flooding is often overlooked in catchments which are historically known for fluvial floods. In this study, we present a conceptual remote sensing based integrated approach to enhance current practice in the estimation of flood extent and damage and characterise the spatial distribution of pluvial and fluvial flooding. Cockermouth, a town which is highly prone to flooding, was selected as a study site. The flood event caused by named storm Desmond in 2015 (5-6/12/2015) was selected for this study. A high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) was produced from a composite digital surface model (DSM) and a digital terrain model (DTM) obtained from the Environment Agency. Using this DEM, a 2D flood model was developed in HEC-RAS (v5) 2D for the study site. Simulations were carried out with and without pluvial flooding. Calibrated models were then used to compare the fluvial and combined (pluvial and fluvial) flood damage areas for different land use types. The number of residential properties affected by both fluvial and combined flooding was compared using a combination of modelled results and data collected from Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). As far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that remote sensing data, hydrological modelling and flood damage data at a property level have been combined to differentiate between the extent of flooding and damage caused by fluvial and pluvial flooding in the same event. Results show that the contribution of pluvial flooding should not be ignored, even in a catchment where fluvial flooding is the major cause of the flood damages. Although the additional flood depths caused by the pluvial contribution were lower than the fluvial flood depths, the affected area is still significant. Pluvial flooding increased the overall number of affected properties by 25%. In addition, it increased the flood depths in a number of properties that were identified as being affected by fluvial flooding, in some cases by more than 50%. These findings show the importance of taking pluvial flooding into consideration in flood management practices. Further, most of the data used in this study was obtained via remote sensing methods, including UAS. This demonstrates the merit of developing a remote sensing based framework to enhance current practices in the estimation of both flood extent and damage.Item Open Access Water diplomacy and nexus governance in a transboundary context: In the search for complementarities(Elsevier, 2019-07-02) Salmoral, Gloria; Schaap, Nynke C. E.; Walschebauer, Julia; Alhajaj, AreenGrowing evidence within nexus research has highlighted the importance for sustainable governance of considering the interdependencies between water, energy, food and the environment, whereas water diplomacy has provided the necessary tools to address water conflicts of a transboundary nature. This paper therefore identifies and evaluates unrealised complementarities between nexus governance and water diplomacy, and discusses the benefits of integrating both for improved transboundary basin management. Two case studies - a wastewater treatment plant within the Jordan's nexus vision and a research project into management of the transboundary Zambezi River Basin - illustrate the identified complementarities and their contribution towards collaborative transboundary natural resources management. On one hand, the consideration of synergies and trade-offs between water, energy and food systems and beyond the river basin scale within nexus governance engages a larger diversity of stakeholders and can help realise more balanced agreements between sectors and hence complement water diplomacy goals. The enriched negotiations arising from a nexus approach can facilitate benefits-sharing in water diplomacy due to the broader exchange of experiences across several natural resources systems. Likewise, international nexus development projects involving a diverse range of sectors and stakeholders can ultimately facilitate peace building through inter-state cooperation and reduce the focus on disputed natural resources. On the other hand, water diplomacy provides tools to address complexity and capture political contexts that overcome the traditional technical and ‘most-rational-solution’ methods. With the application of joint fact finding, value creation and collaborative adaptive management, the added value includes the generation of a shared understanding that embeds politics in decision-making and promotes mutual gains. Further collaboration and on-the-ground experiences between researchers, policy makers and the private sector are needed, to acknowledge and act upon the complementarities of nexus governance and water diplomacy, with the final outcome of promoting cooperation in the management of transboundary resources.Item Open Access Water-related challenges in nexus governance for sustainable development: Insights from the city of Arequipa, Peru(Elsevier, 2020-07-25) Salmoral, Gloria; Zegarra, Eduardo; Vázquez-Rowe, Ian; González, Fernando G.; Castillo, Laureano del; Saravia, Giuliana Rondón; Graves, Anil R.; Rey Vicario, Dolores; Knox, Jerry W.Peru has one of the fastest-growing economies in Latin America, but there are concerns regarding how long this can be sustained. Negative environmental impacts are increasing due to the pressures of a growing urban population and competition for natural resources. This study explores stakeholder perceptions linked to nexus governance in the context of integrated management of natural resources, particularly water, and the environmental, socio-economic and governance challenges constraining the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our analysis focused on the urban and rural areas associated with the city of Arequipa, an economically dynamic region subject to extreme levels of water stress. Face-to-face interviews with key informants were conducted to identify mechanisms that have enhanced successful multi-sectoral collaboration, and to assess challenges in promoting sustainable economic development. A workshop prioritised the identified challenges and an online survey was then used to assess stakeholder interest in and influence over nexus governance of water with other natural resources. Stakeholder mapping revealed a complex network of actors involved in nexus governance, where successful collaboration could be promoted through formal and informal mechanisms, including exemplar policies and initiatives across sectors and actors. Shared visions between stakeholders were identified as well as contradictory priorities relating to the sustainable management of natural resources. A key finding that emerged was the need to promote adaptation in water and land management (SDG 6) due to perceived impacts of extreme climate events (SDG 13), urban population growth (SDG 11), and increased sectoral water demands. This situation in combination with poor governance and lack of planning has exposed the vulnerability of Arequipa water supply system to future shocks. Urgent action will be needed to raise stakeholder awareness, strengthen governance and enforcement, and agree on a collective vision for integrated land and water planning if the SDGs are to be achievedItem Open Access Which factors determine adaptation to drought amongst farmers in Northern Thailand? Investigating farmers’ appraisals of risk and adaptation and their exposure to drought information communications as determinants of their adaptive responses(Springer, 2024-01-11) Sutcliffe, Chloe; Holman, Ian P.; Goodwin, Daniel; Salmoral, Gloria; Pardthaisong, Liwa; Visessri, Supattra; Ekkawatpanit, Chaiwat; Rey, DoloresDrought communications constitute an important source of learning about climate risks and responses that can assist adaptation decision-making amongst those whose livelihoods are threatened by drought. This paper applies Protection Motivation Theory to explore associations between drought communications and attitudes towards drought risk and adaptation amongst farmers in Northern Thailand. The analysis reveals links between drought communications, farmers’ adaptation appraisal, and their adaptation decisions, whilst links with risk appraisal are minimal. The results highlight positive feedbacks between adaptation experience and appraisal and reveal a weak negative relationship between risk appraisal and adaptation appraisal. The findings imply benefits to framing drought communications in terms of the efficacy and attainability of suitable adaptations, rather than simply highlighting drought risks or providing drought warnings, to best enable farmers to build drought resilience.