Browsing by Author "Silke, Andrew"

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    Assessing the role of citizenship education provision in preventing extremist radicalisation
    (2018) Gaffney, Francis; Silke, Andrew
    Radicalisation towards violent extremism within educational settings has emerged as a high profile and critical issue in many contemporary societies. Debates around the appropriate role of educational institutions should play in this regard have attracted intense media and public debate both in the UK and internationally. Arguably, education should be at the heart of anti-, -radicalisation plans, with an emphasis placed on educating children in a way that improves their economic, social, and personal well-being by developing resiliency. This research involved face-to-face interviews with 51 education sector professionals to establish an evidence base regarding current practice regarding the understanding of radicalisation and building young people’s resilience to violent extremism. These professionals were based across ten countries in Europe and the Middle East. This research aimed to examine staff attitudes to different aspects of the National Curriculum, notably Personal, Social, and Health Education (PSHE) and Citizenship Education (CE), aand how these could potentially impact on, or act as a source of potential triggers for, radicalisation. Several major themes were identified in the interview responses. In particular, the results highlighted a range of the limitations and shortfalls perceived by staff in CE provision and delivery. Many of these were widely shared across the sector while a few were more specific to certain regions. Major themes included 1) failings with how CE was delivered; 2) the impact of limited time allocation on CE activity; 3) a wide range of other challenges with regard to CE implementation; and 4) staff apprehension regarding their role and the role CE potentially plays in countering extremist behaviour. Regional level differences included, for example, participants in the UK flagging concerns about giving offence, participants in other European countries highlighting immigration and far-right issues, and participants in the Middle East heavily focusing on the 2011 Arab Spring and Sunni-Shi’a tensions. The results are compared with past research in this area and are used to identify a series of policy and practice recommendations, as well as avenues for future research
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    COVID-19 and terrorism: Assessing the short-and long-term impacts
    (Pool Re and Cranfield University, 2020-05-05) Silke, Andrew
    The COVID-19 pandemic is already having a significant impact on terrorism in a variety of ways. There is a mixed picture on the level of attacks in the short-term – lockdown measures will tend to inhibit attacks but terrorist propaganda calling for attacks (while authorities are distracted, etc.) will incite some incidents. Much propaganda – and particularly that connected to far-right extremism – is focusing on conspiracy theories connected to COVID-19 and this has already inspired plots and attacks. Islamist extremist propaganda is focusing more on the vulnerability of government opponents distracted by the pandemic and the opportunity this presents for attacks. There is a significant current increase in online extremist activity, raising the risk of increasing short-to-medium term radicalisation. There are strong long-term concerns that states weakened by the serious economic consequences of the pandemic will be more vulnerable to the emergence/resurgence of terrorist groups in many parts of the world.
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    The development of the framework for research ethics in terrorism studies (FRETS)
    (Taylor & Francis, 2021-03-24) Morrison, John; Silke, Andrew; Bont, Eke
    This article introduces readers to the Framework for Research Ethics in Terrorism Studies (FRETS). FRETS has been developed to assist IRB/HREC chairs and reviewers in completing reviews of terrorism studies ethics proposals, in as objective a manner as possible. The framework consists of a series of yes/no questions for chairs and reviewers to answer before completing their reviews. These questions are divided into six different sections: participant’s right’s, safety and vulnerability; informed consent; confidentiality and anonymity; researcher’s right’s, safety and vulnerability; data storage and security-sensitive materials; and the ethical review process. This framework was developed as a result of critical analysis of the literature in terrorism research and analogous fields.
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    Eco-Terrorism: assessing current threats and trends
    (Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2022-08-08) Silke, Andrew
    Eco-terrorism is motivated by a diverse range of issues and is mainly carried out by lone actors or relatively small and diffuse groupings. Attacks primarily target the destruction of property and vandalism, and are 70 times less likely to result in fatalities compared to the average terrorist attack recorded in the Global Terrorism Database. The most commonly used weapons are incendiary and explosive devices. While only used in a small number of cases, environmentally-motivated terrorist attacks are, however, more likely to involve chemical, biological or radiological weapons compared to average terrorist attacks. Businesses are the primary targets for environmentally-motivated terrorism, followed by research/educational facilities and personnel. Trends currently do not show a rise in traditional environmentally-motivated terrorist attacks connected to the climate change crisis. This may change, however, as the climate crisis worsens and may also be affected if plans to more heavily criminalise non-violent climate protest activity are realised. The recent rise of eco-fascism indicates that environmentally-motivated narratives can be co-opted by other extremist ideologies and that this can have an impact on real-world violence. The potential for this to also eventually happen with regard to Islamist and nationalist-separatist extremism, for example, seems real, particularly in the context of a deepening climate crisis.
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    Gathering storm: an introduction to the special issue on climate change and terrorism
    (Taylor and Francis, 2022-07-05) Silke, Andrew; Morrison, John
    Climate change is a potential major driver of future terrorism. It is already recognised by many (if not most) nations as a strategic security threat, though the potential role it can play in igniting, facilitating, or exacerbating terrorist conflict has been relatively unexplored. There are, however, growing signs that climate change—either through direct or indirect impacts—should be considered as a significant macro-level driver of terrorism.
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    How dangerous are released terrorist prisoners and what is being done to manage this risk?
    (Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2022-05) Silke, Andrew
    The past decade has seen a general increase in the number of people convicted for terrorism-related offences in England and Wales, with an accompanying rise in the number of terrorist prisoners. This year, between 90-100 terrorist prisoners will be considered for release in England and Wales and, if recent trends hold, approximately half of these prisoners will be released. Between 2013 and 2021, 443 terrorist prisoners were released,1averaging roughly 50 former prisoners back on the streets each year.
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    How proximity and space matter: exploring geographical & social contexts of radicalization in Northern Ireland
    (Taylor & Francis, 2022-06-07) Ylitalo-James, Emma; Silke, Andrew
    The “specificity problem” is one of the longest running unanswered questions in research on terrorism. This problem focuses on the fundamental question as to why do only a few people radicalize when many appear to have been exposed to at least some of the same causes of radicalization? The current study seeks to help answer that question through comparative research with two sample populations in Northern Ireland. In-depth interviews were carried out with 17 former paramilitary members and 12 paramilitary sympathizers. The interviews explored factors which distinguished those who became actively involved with paramilitary groups versus those who did not. The results discussed here found that geographic proximity to intercommunity violence flashpoints/interfaces was strongly associated with increased paramilitary involvement. Thematic analysis found this effect was mediated by two additional factors: (1) levels of exposure to violence and (2) levels of community isolation. The findings are discussed in relation to the wider literature on radicalization.
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    How terrorists think about the economic impact of attacks
    (Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2019-11-20) Silke, Andrew
    It has long been recognised that terrorism can be a remarkably effective low cost form of conflict. For modest outlays on the part of perpetrators, terrorist violence can inflict disproportionately high economic costs. The potential for heavy economic impacts was a key factor behind the formation of Pool Re in the UK and other terrorism reinsurance schemes internationally.
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    Is drawing from the state ‘state of the art’?: a review of organised crime research data collection and analysis, 2004–2018
    (Springer, 2019-01-08) Windle, James; Silke, Andrew
    This paper presents a systematic review of organised crime data collection and analysis methods. It did this by reviewing all papers published in Trends in Organized Crime and Global Crime between 2004 and 2018 (N = 463). The review identified a number of key weaknesses. First, organised crime research is dominated by secondary data analysis of open-access documents, and documents are seldom subjected to the same principles guiding primary data collection methods. Second, data analysis lacked balance with a distinct lack of inferential statistical analysis. Third, there was a significant absence of victim or offender voices with an overreliance on data from state bodies and the media. The paper concludes that organised crime, as field of research, appears unbalanced by reliance upon a small number of methods and sources. Rebalancing the field requires more organised crime researchers to speak to offenders and victims, employ greater use of statistical analysis and tighten our methodologies.
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    Looking back helps us see the future
    (Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2018-04-26) Silke, Andrew
    This paper marks year marks the 25th anniversary of the founding of Pool Re. In an era dominated by the threat of Islamist terrorism and the spectre of suicide attacks and mass casualty bombings and rampages, it can be easy to overlook the context in which Pool Re was created and easy too to forget that today is not the first era in which terrorism has poised strategic threats and challenges to the UK. The paper explores the terrorist threat as it existed in the 1990s and highlights how some issues remain as critical today as they did then.
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    The Phoenix model of disengagement and deradicalisation from terrorism and violent extremism
    (De Gruyter, 2021-10-01) Silke, Andrew; Morrison, John; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, Rebecca
    Improving our understanding of how disengagement and deradicalisation from terrorism and violent extremism occurs has critical real-world implications. A systematic review of the recent literature in this area was conducted in order to develop a more refined and empirically-derived model of the processes involved. After screening more than 83,000 documents, we found 29 research reports which met the minimum quality thresholds. Thematic analysis identified key factors associated with disengagement and deradicalisation processes. Assessing the interactions of these factors produced the Phoenix Model of Disengagement and Deradicalisation which is described in this paper. Also examined are some of the potential policy and practice implications of the Phoenix Model, as are avenues for future research in this area.
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    The Phoenix Model: disengagement and deradicalisation
    (Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2021-10-15) Silke, Andrew; Morrison, John; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, Rebecca
    This article provides an introduction to the Phoenix Model of Disengagement And Deradicalisation. In a review of disengagement and deradicalisation literature from 2017 to 2020, we identified 11 major themes: Opportunity, Disillusionment, (Dis)trust, Family and friends, Prison, Identity, Programme interventions, Formers, Security, Mental health, and Reintegration. Many of these themes have been flagged as significant factors in disengagement and deradicalisation before, though this is the first time they’ve been identified as a collective. This systematic approach allowed further analysis to develop a new model for understanding disengagement and deradicalisation processes which is outlined here.
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    Physical facilitating environments – prisons and madrassas as mechanisms and vehicles of violent radicalisation?
    (I.B. Tauris, 2019-08-22) Silke, Andrew
    Prisons and madrassas have both been repeatedly flagged in UK government policy as high risk settings for jihadist radicalisation. Some theoretical models of the radicalisation process have also drawn attention to these spaces. This review found that there have been cases of radicalisation or attempted radicalisation in both prison settings and madrassas in the UK. However, such cases are isolated. While other countries may have different experiences, the research evidence suggests that successful radicalisation is rare in both settings in the UK. The evidence instead stresses the importance of other factors in the radicalisation process, and suggests that physical settings overall appear to be a poor predictor for radicalisation risk. Despite this, it is clear that both types of settings continue to be widely regarded both by the media and within government circles as prominent centres of radicalisation, with the result that policy attention continues to be specifically directed to these settings.
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    Re-offending by released terrorist prisoners: Separating hype from reality
    (International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, 2020-09-02) Silke, Andrew; Morrison, John
    Recent cases of attacks by released terrorist prisoners highlight issues around the risk of re-offending posed by former terrorist prisoners. What are the appropriate processes and systems for managing and risk assessing such individuals, and to what extent is rehabilitation possible in the context of terrorist offending? This Policy Brief will explore these and related issues to help inform wider discussion and debates on appropriate policy in this area. In this Policy Brief, the authors critically analyse the definition of ‘recidivism’, and demonstrate the need for a concrete operational definition before one is able to truly analyse recidivist activity. Following this, the authors discuss terrorist recidivism in a range of international contexts, ranging from Northern Ireland to Sri Lanka, the United States to Israel. By taking this broader perspective it allows the reader to gain a greater understanding of what factors related to recidivism rates may be context-specific, and which are universal.
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    The role of (dis)trust in disengagement and deradicalisation
    (Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2021-07-23) Morrison, John; Silke, Andrew; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, Rebecca
    When designing a disengagement or deradicalisation programme, who delivers it and how much they are trusted needs careful consideration. A systematic review of the disengagement and deradicalisation literature identified (dis)trust as playing a key filtering role in the disengagement and deradicalisation decision-making processes. It was found that the opportunities to leave a terrorist organisation are more likely to be successful when they are offered by an individual, organisation, or entity that is perceived by the would-be defector as being trustworthy. The same opportunity provided by a distrusted or less trusted entity is significantly less likely to lead to an organisational exit. Trust is most important at the initial stages of disengagement. However, if one is to have a sustained exit, these and other trusting relationships must be maintained.
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    A systematic review of post-2017 research on disengagement and deradicalisation
    (Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2021-08-02) Morrison, John F.; Silke, Andrew; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, Rebecca
    An urgent need exists for an empirically grounded understanding of the processes that lead individuals to disengage and deradicalise from terrorism and violent extremism. It is only with such empirically driven knowledge that appropriate interventions and programmes to assist in the successful reintegration of former terrorists and violent extremists can be designed, validated, updated and implemented. This report provides a systematic review of the post-2017 research on disengagement and deradicalisation (see Appendix A for methodology). After screening more than 83,000 documents, we found 95 reports which met the criteria for coding. This sample of reports was coded across eight core coding themes and a total of 123 individual variables (see Appendix B). Through the process of a systematic quality review, 29 articles were identified as meeting the criteria for full thematic analysis. In addition to this, the 30 most heavily cited pre-2017 papers (see Appendix C) on disengagement and deradicalisation were identified to be used as a comparative sample for the post-2017 publications. The analysis of that collection has allowed us to identify the major factors involved in these processes and to assess the extent to which knowledge and understanding is progressing in this critical field. Overall, the review found clear evidence of progress in our understanding of disengagement and deradicalisation. Comparison with the pre-2017 literature illustrates that valuable research is being conducted and published in the recent period using more robust research methods and which is providing new data for analysis and insight. The review found that research had identified a range of facilitative causes and barriers for disengagement and deradicalisation, though work is still needed to determine the weighting of these. Encouragingly, the review also found that the available evidence suggests that many interventions examined appear to have positive impacts. Relapse and recidivism occur but appears to be uncommon. Eleven major themes across the post-2017 research were identified and analysed
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    The violent dissident republican threat
    (Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2019-07-01) Silke, Andrew
    Though often overlooked in recent years, terrorism related to Northern Ireland is still a possible threat to the UK. Since the signing of the Good Friday Peace Agreement in 1998, over 150 people have been killed as a result of security-related violence in the region. 1 A young journalist, Lyra McKee, became the latest fatality when she was shot and killed by violent dissident republicans (VDRs) during a riot in Derry in April. On average between 15-40 shootings and bombings take place each year though media coverage of the incidents outside of Northern Ireland is very limited and wider awareness of the violence is low. In the 12 months up to March 2019, the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) recorded 15 bombings and 38 security-related shootings in the province. 2 While there is no denying that the level of violence has declined massively compared to that seen before the Good Friday Agreement, it is still vital to realise that a variety of terrorist organisations remain active.
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    What drives terrorist innovation? Lessons from black September and Munich 1972
    (Springer, 2019-05-22) Silke, Andrew; Filippidou, Anastasia
    Understanding terrorist innovation has emerged as a critical research question. Terrorist innovation challenges status quo assumptions about the nature of terrorist threats and emphasises a need for counterterrorism policy and practice to attempt to not simply react to changes in terrorist tactics and strategies but also to try to anticipate them. This study focused on a detailed examination of the 1972 Munich Olympics attack and draws on the wide range of open source accounts available, including from terrorists directly involved but also from among the authorities and victims. Using an analytical framework proposed by Rasmussen and Hafez (Terrorist innovations in weapons of mass effect: preconditions, causes and predictive indicators, The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Washington, DC, 2010), several key drivers are identified and described, both internal to the group and external to its environment. The study concludes that the innovation shown by Black September was predictable and that Munich represented a profound security failure as much as it did successful terrorist innovation.