Browsing by Author "Zwarteveen, Jan Willem"

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    Forecasting the probability of commercial wind power development in lagging countries
    (Elsevier, 2022-04-13) Zwarteveen, Jan Willem; Angus, Andrew
    There is significant under-utilization of wind energy resources, particularly in countries that have high wind potential. From the 67 highest wind potential countries, 39 have installed less than 500 ​MW of wind power capacity, while the remaining countries have an average installed capacity of 20,596 ​MW. In the lagging countries, there is significant potential for sustainable value creation, however large investment gaps need to be closed. Entering a new market for wind power Original Equipment Manufacturers is complex and requires a prediction of the future market size. Quantitative research to promote wind power internationalization is scarce. The objective of this paper is therefore to estimate the market size by predicting the probability of commercial wind development in the lagging countries. The purpose is to help the Original Equipment Manufacturers in their market entry decisions. The second purpose is to provide an example how to reduce risk required to close the Sustainable Development Goals financing gap. Using a binary logistic regression model based on technological path creation theory, the probability for the 39 lagging countries to enter the wind power commercialization stage was predicted. Results show that 12 of the lagging countries have a high probability to commercialize wind energy. A new simulation-based approach was presented to stimulate wind power market entry. The prediction of adoption probability proves useful to reduce risk required to close the financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Market entry for wind energy: strategic approaches for the original equipment manufacturer
    (Wiley, 2021-10-13) Zwarteveen, Jan Willem; Zawwar, Imran; Angus, Andrew
    Wind energy is a valuable resource, but many developing and emerging economies(DEEs) are not utilizing the tremendous wind capacity available to them. This meansthere is a potential for wind turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) topenetrate new markets to increase profits, and to contribute to Sustainable Develop-ment Goals. This article explores the potential triggers for wind energy diffusion andprovides the basis for inclusive market entry strategies for wind power OEMs. Indica-tions are that early wind energy path creation is driven by climate adaptation, vestedinterests in fossil fuels and hydropower, and the business case potential. A negativebusiness case potential in many DEEs formed a substantial barrier. A shift toincreased local value creation, collaboration with traditional power producers, andpromoting wind for climate adaptation are key novel inclusive market entry strategiesto open and develop new markets.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Wind energy diffusion in developing countries
    (Cranfield University, 2022-04) Zwarteveen, Jan Willem; Angus, Andrew; Zawwar, Imran
    Wind energy is valuable, but many developing and emerging economies (DEEs) do not utilize their substantial wind potential. The objective of this research is to understand wind energy diffusion with the aim to promote wind energy in underdeveloped areas for sustainable benefits of both country and wind industry. The literature review and meta-analysis identified 259 factors that influenced wind energy diffusion. A novel conceptual framework that describes wind energy diffusion was developed, dissecting factors that influence wind diffusion into factors related to the desire for wind energy, factors related to the mechanism of change and disturbing factors. Regarding DEEs, the meta-analysis showed indications of the importance of economic factors and, opposing expectations, environmental factors appear not to drive wind energy growth. Based on path creation theories but using binary logistic regression as a novel quantitative approach, the empirical study explored the factors influencing early wind energy diffusion. Key indicated drivers appeared to be climate adaptation, vested interests (fossil fuels and hydropower), and the business case potential. Regarding DEEs, a negative business case potential formed a key barrier. Novel market entry strategies for the wind power Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) are to collaborate with vested power producers rather than compete and promote wind for climate adaptation instead of climate change mitigation. Most high wind potential countries have installed less than 500 MW of wind power capacity (commercialization threshold). The remaining countries have on average 20596 MW of wind capacity installed per country. The lagging wind adopting countries were assessed on their probability to adopt commercial wind in the near future, by using a novel quantitative path creation forecasting method. Passive entry, passive waiting, active entry and active waiting were defined as suggested market entry and development strategies for the wind OEM.