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Competence retention analysis: a technique for predicting and managing retention within organizational training design and delivery

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2025-09-12

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1555-3434

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Cahillane M, Anderson T, MacLean P, Smy V. (2026) Competence retention analysis: a technique for predicting and managing retention within organizational training design and delivery. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, Volume 20, Issue 1, March 2026, pp. 3-25

Abstract

Those responsible in organisations for the design and delivery of training require a practical method for the analysis and prediction of skills retention. To address this, a taxonomy of nine psychological domains was developed specifically to provide a finer-grained approach to analysis of the skills required in the performance of trained tasks. An extant predictive model relevant to five of the domains was applied to produce a set of domain retention curves for physical/lower-order cognitive skills. These curves informed the development of a novel Competence Retention Analysis Technique (CRA-T) that incorporates a simple ‘traffic light’ approach indicating workforce proficiency, following a period without practice. CRA-T simplifies the process of understanding skill retention for practitioners by providing an alternative to separate empirical studies. By identifying the psychological domains involved in task performance insights can be gained into the acquisition and retention of these components, allowing the determination of those most at risk of decay. CRA-T is suitable for the analysis of a range of physical/cognitive tasks across sectors, where systematic approaches to training analysis/design for skill retention optimisation are required. CRA-T considers complex cognitive skills, but as no predictive models currently exist, longitudinal research is required to define their retention levels.

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Data supporting this study cannot be made available due to commercial restrictions and the nature of the research.

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Git repository

Keywords

4602 Artificial intelligence, 5204 Cognitive and computational psychology, competence, skills acquisition, skills retention, skill fade, simple cognitive skills, complex cognitive skills

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Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

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The research was funded by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) through the Defence Human Capability Science and Technology Centre (contract number: DSTLX-1000069524) and the Human and Social Sciences Research Capability (contract number: DSTL/AGR/01035/01).

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