As ATMIS looks to withdraw, the risk of large-scale al-Shabaab success in southern Somalia is high

In March this year, the African Union (AU) expeditionary force in southern Somalia—which started off as AMISOM but is now the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)—reached its 17th year. The mission will end on December 31, 2024, and it will be replaced by a new African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). United Nations Security Council approval will have to be given this month to meet the changeover deadline. Yet the new force is unlikely to significantly degrade the long-term threat al-Shabaab poses. al-Shabaab is stronger than generally perceived and may be in a position to achieve significant large-scale success.