An investigation of influences on deterrence in cyberspace

Abstract

Deterrence, including deterrence in cyberspace, is typically seen in terms of a cost-benefit calculus. This fails to take account of the wider context of the situation, the cultural factors influencing the parties and the differing perceptions they have. While the existing literature has acknowledged the importance of perception and culture, it contains no demonstration of how to address them. Further, deterrence is viewed as a single event without a past or a future, which does not reflect the reality of ongoing or developing relationships and situations. This research takes a radical approach in seeking to address these issues, and how they can be taken into account in planning deterrence activities in cyberspace. It uses a critical realist ontology and employs mixed methods research to identify the factors relevant to deterrence through which the deterrer can influence the perceptions of the deterree and thus improve the likelihood of success of their deterrence activity. The primary research and its findings, particularly those from qualitative interviews with relevant experts, address the importance of the perceptions of the deterree and relevant cultural factors, together with an articulation of the wider context and the changing nature of the relationship between the parties in deterrence. Conclusions from the research emphasise the importance of empathy for the deterree, seeing the situation from their viewpoint. Empathy can, however, present a challenge, and the research recognises this by developing an initial framework to help those planning deterrence activities to take relevant factors into account. The framework does not directly set out the way forward but poses questions, the answers to which will inform discussion and decisions about courses of action. The research thus makes a valuable contribution to knowledge by taking a wider approach to deterrence in cyberspace than previous academic work.