Transformative governance and community renewable energy adoption: integrating decentralized solutions for sustainable energy transitions in northern Nigeria

Abstract

This thesis examines how decentralized governance and citizen participation can accelerate renewable energy (RE) adoption in Nigeria. Working within a Community Renewable Energy–Multi-Level Governance (CRE-MLG) framework, the research integrates a household survey (n=559) and semi-structured stakeholder interviews (n=15) to identify determinants of adoption and practical pathways for implementation. Quantitatively, a multinomial logit model estimated in STATA, interpreted via average marginal effects (AMEs) and robustness checks, shows that income, education, and awareness are the most consistent predictors of readiness to adopt, with occupation adding important nuance (civil service/NGO > informal sector). At 15–20% above baseline income, the probability of high commitment rises by 44% points, and by 52% points at >20%, while awareness alone increases commitment by nearly 15% points. Interaction terms reveal diminishing returns to generic awareness at higher incomes and education-sensitive effects, indicating that adoption does not follow a simple linear path. Qualitative findings indicate that adoption depends as much on credible, proximate institutions as on affordability or information. Fragmented mandates, slow approvals, and weak accountability blunt household willingness to act. The thesis operationalizes this governance gap through Renewable Energy Desk Officers (REDOs) embedded in the local government(s) to coordinate approvals, consumer protection, data flows, and targeted information campaigns. Overall, the results position Nigeria’s energy transition as fundamentally governance-oriented; awareness converts to action where finance is accessible, information is trusted, and delivery is reliable. Policy recommendations include income-segmented finance (subsidies, micro-finance, Pay-As-You-Go), education-sensitive messaging, occupation-routed outreach, and regulatory coherence implemented through REDOs. Re-channelling substantial private spending on backup generation toward decentralized renewables, under credible local delivery, can advance national targets while improving equity and reliability.