Revealing the excitation causality between climate and political violence via a neural forward-intensity Poisson process

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dc.contributor.authorSun, Schyler C.
dc.contributor.authorJin, Bailu
dc.contributor.authorWei, Zhuangkun
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Weisi
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-29T10:06:25Z
dc.date.available2022-07-29T10:06:25Z
dc.date.issued2022-07-29
dc.description.abstractThe causal mechanism between climate and political violence is fraught with complex mechanisms. Current quantitative causal models rely on one or more assumptions: (1) the climate drivers persistently generate conflict, (2) the causal mechanisms have a linear relationship with the conflict generation parameter, and/or (3) there is sufficient data to inform the prior distribution. Yet, we know conflict drivers often excite a social transformation process which leads to violence (e.g., drought forces agricultural producers to join urban militia), but further climate effects do not necessarily contribute to further violence. Therefore, not only is this bifurcation relationship highly non-linear, there is also often a lack of data to support prior assumptions for high resolution modeling. Here, we aim to overcome the aforementioned causal modeling challenges by proposing a neural forward-intensity Poisson process (NFIPP) model. The NFIPP is designed to capture the potential non-linear causal mechanism in climate induced political violence, whilst being robust to sparse and timing-uncertain data. Our results span 20 recent years and reveal an excitation-based causal link between extreme climate events and political violence across diverse countries. Our climate-induced conflict model results are cross-validated against qualitative climate vulnerability indices. Furthermore, we label historical events that either improve or reduce our predictability gain, demonstrating the importance of domain expertise in informing interpretation.en_UK
dc.description.sponsorshipAlan Turing Instituteen_UK
dc.identifier.citationSun SC, Jin B, Wei Z, Guo W. (2022) Revealing the excitation causality between climate and political violence via a neural forward-intensity Poisson process. In: 31st International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence IJCAI, 23-29 July 2022, Vienna, Austriaen_UK
dc.identifier.isbn978-1-956792-00-3
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2203.04511
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/18257
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherarXiven_UK
dc.titleRevealing the excitation causality between climate and political violence via a neural forward-intensity Poisson processen_UK
dc.typeConference paperen_UK

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