Optimizing the temperature sensitivity of the isoprene emission model MEGAN in different ecosystems using a Metropolis‐Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

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dc.contributor.authorDiMaria, Christian A.
dc.contributor.authorJones, Dylan B. A.
dc.contributor.authorFerracci, Valerio
dc.contributor.authorBloom, A. Anthony
dc.contributor.authorWorden, Helen M.
dc.contributor.authorSeco, Roger
dc.contributor.authorVettikkat, Lejish
dc.contributor.authorYáñez Serrano, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorGuenther, Alex B.
dc.contributor.authorAraujo, A.
dc.contributor.authorGoldstein, Allen H.
dc.contributor.authorLangford, Ben
dc.contributor.authorCash, James
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Neil R. P.
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Luke
dc.contributor.authorRinnan, Riikka
dc.contributor.authorSchobesberger, Siegfried
dc.contributor.authorHolst, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorMak, John E.
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-30T14:20:51Z
dc.date.available2025-05-30T14:20:51Z
dc.date.freetoread2025-05-30
dc.date.issued2025-05-01
dc.date.pubOnline2025-05-13
dc.description.abstractIsoprene is a reactive hydrocarbon emitted to the atmosphere in large quantities by terrestrial vegetation. Annual total isoprene emissions exceed 300 Tg a−1, but emission rates vary widely among plant species and are sensitive to meteorological and environmental conditions including temperature, sunlight, and soil moisture. Due to its high reactivity, isoprene has a large impact on air quality and climate pollutants such as ozone and aerosols. It is also an important sink for the hydroxyl radical which impacts the lifetime of the important greenhouse gas methane along with many other trace gas species. Modeling the impacts of isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate requires accurate isoprene emission estimates. These can be obtained using the empirical Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), but the parameterization of this model is uncertain due in part to limited field observations. In this study, we use ground‐based measurements of isoprene concentrations and fluxes from 11 field sites to assess the variability of the isoprene emission temperature response across ecosystems. We then use these observations in a Metropolis‐Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MHMCMC) data assimilation framework to optimize the MEGAN temperature response function. We find that the performance of MEGAN can be significantly improved at several high‐latitude field sites by increasing the modeled sensitivity of isoprene emissions to past temperatures. At some sites, the optimized model was nearly four times more sensitive to temperature than the unoptimized model. This has implications for air quality modeling in a warming climate.
dc.description.journalNameJournal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
dc.description.sponsorshipCanadian Space Agency; 16SUASEMIS, Natural Environment Research Council; NE/W003694/1, Federal Ministry of Education and Research; 01LB1001A, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação; 01.11.01248.00, Research Council of Finland; 310682, 337550, 346371, 357905, Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities; RYC2020‐029216‐I, PID2021‐122892NA‐I00
dc.identifier.citationDiMaria CA, Jones DBA, Ferracci V, et al., (2025) Optimizing the temperature sensitivity of the isoprene emission model MEGAN in different ecosystems using a Metropolis‐Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Volume 130, Issue 5, Article number e2025JG008806en_UK
dc.identifier.eissn2169-8961
dc.identifier.elementsID673361
dc.identifier.issn2169-8953
dc.identifier.issueNo5
dc.identifier.paperNoe2025JG008806
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025jg008806
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/23946
dc.identifier.volumeNo130
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)
dc.publisher.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JG008806
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15262183
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://bai.ess.uci.edu/megan/data‐and‐code
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4904195
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://www.vis-ualcrossing.com/weather‐history
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectisopreneen_UK
dc.subjectoptimizationen_UK
dc.subjectmodelen_UK
dc.subjectobservationsen_UK
dc.subjectMonte Carloen_UK
dc.subjectecosystemen_UK
dc.subject37 Earth Sciencesen_UK
dc.subject3701 Atmospheric Sciencesen_UK
dc.subject13 Climate Actionen_UK
dc.subject3706 Geophysicsen_UK
dc.titleOptimizing the temperature sensitivity of the isoprene emission model MEGAN in different ecosystems using a Metropolis‐Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo methoden_UK
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.subtypeJournal Article
dcterms.dateAccepted2025-04-24

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